Archive - 2014

December 29th

Tyler Durden's picture

1999 Or 2014? "Ordinary People Show Extraordinary Faith [In Stocks]"





“There are far more people in the market, including mutual funds, than there is intelligence to go around.”

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Draghi's QE Plan In Jeopardy After IMF Suspends Aid For Greece Until New Government Is In Place





Things for Europe (and liquidity addicts around the globe) just got a little more complicated. Earlier today, moments after the failed Greek presidential vote pulled the forgotten topic of a Grexit up front and center, the IMF announced that it is suspending financial aid to Greece under its huge rescue program until a new government is formed. RTE quotes IMF spokesperson Gerry Rice who said discussion on the completion of the sixth review of Greece's bailout will resume once a new government is in place. Mr Rice added that the holdup in the program would not impact the country's finances in the short term.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Scottish Government Confirms Ebola Diagnosed In Glasgow Patient





We wonder if England will be reconsidering the secession vote?

  • *SCOTTISH GOVT: CONFIRMED EBOLA CASE DIAGNOSED IN GLASGOW
  • *SCOTLAND: PATIENT IS A HEALTH CARE WORKER, RETURNED FROM SIERRA LEONE DEC. 28

After Japan's stock market slid overnight following reports of Ebola in Tokyo, one wonders what a recurrence of Ebola headlines will do to risk complacency this time? Perhaps, since the Ebola Tzar's work is done in America, they can lend him out to The Scots?

 

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The $9 Trillion US Dollar Carry Trade Blew Up Oil, Russia, and Brazil… What's Next?





Most of the “recovery” of the last five years has been fueled by cheap borrowed Dollars. Now that the US Dollar has broken out of a multi-year range, you’re going to see more and more “risk assets” (read: projects or investments fueled by borrowed Dollars) blow up.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Swiss Depositors Confused By Concept Of NIRP As Swiss Deposits Jump Most In 18 Months





This wasn't supposed to happen. The Swiss National Bank has a problem - having announced on Dec 18th that it will impose negative deposit rates starting Jan 22nd, sight deposits soared (as opposed to the textbook expectations). Sight deposits (cash-like deposits commercial banks hold with the central bank) rose CHF10.8 billion this week (or 3.4%) - the most in over 18 months.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Crude Is Tumbling (Again)





While mainstream media desperately played up the fact that oil prices were 'off the lows' this morning as some kind of positive news, that narrative is now dashed to winds of under-demand and over-supply. With WTI Crude prices testing the multi-year cycle lows once again, crashing below $54, we wonder how long before the Yellen effect wears off...

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Brazil's Economy Just Imploded





China may have mastered the art of fabricating economic data to a level unmatched by anyone except the US Department of Labor, but its derivative countries have much to learn. And none other more so than one of China's favorite sources of commodities over the past decade: Brazil. It is here that things are going from worse to catastrophic, as disclosed in today's update of Brazil's fiscal picture.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Just 5 Fun-Durr-Mental Charts





With Treasury yields plunging today and oil prices heading back towards cycle lows, is it any wonder stocks are testing record highs once again... these 5 charts should help explain it all...

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Trigger?





"where are the opponents to the ethos that anything goes and nothing matters? Where are the political figures who can sustain a complaint long enough, and loudly enough, to keep it in the public consciousness clearly enough to make a difference? The more conspiracy-minded might say that the security apparatus (the NSA and its servelings) or Wall Street actually run the country and somehow suppress opposition. I don’t believe that. I do believe that cultures go through tragic periods when they lose their bearings and the will to be truthful to themselves."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Dallas Fed Tumbles Below Lowest Estimate As Commodity Crash Comes Knocking





Who could have possibly anticipated that the one state that contributed the most high-paying jobs during the "recovery" on the back of the shale miracle, is facing recession (as JPM predicted)? Certainly not economists, who have correctly predicted exactly zero of the last 20 economic recessions, and whose lowest estimate for today's Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook survey was 5.0 (with 12.5 on the high side, and a 9.0 consensus mean). Moments ago we got the official number and it was a doozy, plunging from 10.5 to just 4.1, the lowest print since the Polar Vortex swept away economic activity across the US and when the Dallas Fed printed a tiny 0.3.The drop of 6.4 from the November print was also the largest slide in economic activity since October 2013.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Here Is Citi "Explaining" In 2006 Why Soaring Oil Prices Don't Impact Consumption





"We have heard constantly that oil will slow consumption down as it eats into disposable income. But it remains a conundrum to many that consumption has remained robust, despite oil prices remaining high. What’s going on? We don’t see a conundrum. As we wrote about in September (The Global Investigator, Is Oil Relevant for Equities, September 2 2005), in the plutonomy countries, the rich are such a massive part of the economy, that their relative insensitivity to rising oil prices makes US$60 oil something of an irrelevance. For the poorest in society, high gas and petrol prices are a problem. But while they are many in number, they are few in spending power, and their economic influence is just not important enough to offset the economic confidence, well-being and spending of the rich."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

USDJPY-Driven Panic-Buying At US Open Lifts Russell 2000 To New Record Highs





Who could have seen that coming? After showing weakness all night (on still-fading oil prices despite Libyan issues and GREXIT concerns), the moment the US equity cash market opened for business, USDJPY was smacked higher and thus stocks went vertical with the S&P 500 pushing back near record highs. The Russell 2000 was the leader as "most shorted" stocks were monkey-hammered yet again...

 

 

 

Tyler Durden's picture

When Fearmongering Goes Bad: Greece Scrambles To Prevent Deposit Run Goldman Warned About In Its "Worst Case"





Recall that just over two weeks ago, none other than Greek currency swap expert Goldman (alongside Jean-Claude Juncker who quite explicitly warned Greeks not "to vote wrong") came out with a Fire and Brimstone worst-case scenario which was nothing but an attempt at fearmongering designed to scare Greek MPs into doing Samaras' bidding, in which it said not electing the designated presidential candidate may lead to a worst-case scenario which involves a "Cyprus-style prolonged bank holiday." Basically what Goldman said is that unless Greece quickly folds back in line and does as the unelected Brussels eurocrats demand, there will be a Cyprus-style bank closure coupled with preemptied bank runs. Well.... oops. Because if that was the doubled-down bluff, then Greece just called it, and the "downside scenario" is now in play.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Flight To Safety Sends 2Y German Yields To Record Low, -10bps!





As Greek headlines start to sink in, and hot on the heels of Japan recently issuing 2Y bonds at a negative yield for the first time ever, German 2Y yields have crashed to new record lows at -10bps... So what exactly will ECB QE do?

 

Tyler Durden's picture

As Greek Bonds Top 12%, What Happens Next?





Greek stocks are down over 8% (and were worse) back to more than 2-year lows (as banking stocks are massacred) and 3Y bond yields are back over 12% (post-bailout highs) following Samaras' 3rd failed attempt to avoid a snap-election and all the GREXIT possibilities that brings. So, what happens next?

 
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