Archive - 2014

Despite an apparent belief among the US mainstream media that 'taper' is priced in, Saxo Capital Markets warns that Emerging Market countries with large current account deficits like Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia, and Turkey face increasing problems. As the following chart shows (and highlghted most recently by Brazil's highest FX outflows since 2002!) could see their currencies weaken even further if the Fed's taper plans result in a deterioration of global risk appetite.

If you are anxiously awaiting the arrival of the "economic collapse", just open up your eyes and look at what is happening in Europe.  The entire continent is a giant economic mess right now.  Unemployment and poverty levels are setting record highs, car sales are setting record lows, and there is an ocean of bad loans and red ink everywhere you look.  Over the past several years, most of the attention has been on the economic struggles of Greece, Spain and Portugal and without a doubt things continue to get even worse in those nations.  But in 2014 and 2015, Italy and France will start to take center stage.  France has the 5th largest economy on the planet, and Italy has the 9th largest economy on the planet, and at this point both of those economies are rapidly falling to pieces.  Expect both France and Italy to make major headlines throughout the rest of 2014. The following are just a few of the statistics that show that an "economic collapse" is happening in Europe right now...

There is the full-time vs part-time jobs debacle, the questions over job-quality, the "no country for young workers" problem, and Bernanke's "born-again jobs scam," but nowhere is the real 'recovery' in American jobs less evident than in the actual number of employed males...

A month ago, we showed a chart of median household income in the US versus that just in the District of Columbia. The punchline wrote itself: "what's bad for America is good for Washington, D.C." Today we got official verification that Bernanke's wealth transfer in addition to benefitting the richest 1%, primarily those dealing with financial assets, also led to a material increase in the wealth of one particular subgroup of the US population: its politicians.  According to the OpenSecrets blog which conveniently tracks the wealth of America's proud recipients of lobbying dollars, aka Congress, for the first time ever the majority of America's lawmakers are worth more than $1 million.

In 1970, when 11% of adult Americans had bachelor's degrees or more, degree holders were viewed as the nation's best and brightest. Today, with over 30% with degrees, as the WSJ notes, a significant portion of college graduates are similar to the average American - not demonstrably smarter or more disciplined. Furthermore, declining academic standards and grade inflation add to employers' perceptions that college degrees say little about job readiness. As we noted recently, change is coming as more and more realize college may not be worth it. Educational entrepreneurship offers hope that creative destruction is coming to higher education. The cleansing would be good for a higher education system still tied to its medieval origins - and for the students it's robbing.

While Ford and GM struggle somewhat, demand for the eilte-of-the-elite Bentley is soaring. As BusinessWeek reports, 2013 saw the firm sell 10,120 vehicles worldwide - dominated by the Americas - a 19% rise over 2012. Coincidentally, since Fed policy went extreme, Bentley has seen double-digit growth rates each and every year leading to the best performance in its 95-year history. As BusinessWeek ironically notes, it requires no small amount of consumer confidence to roll away in a Bentley Mulsanne, which has a sticker price just shy of $300,000.

These men are masters of the capital markets. They are voting with their feet and pulling their capital out of them. Given that their personal compensation is closely linked to assets under management and profit sharing, this decision is akin to the choice to forego additional wealth that could be made quite easily (none of these individuals would have trouble raising several billion more in capital) rather than trying to find opportunities in a challenging market.

Just a few short weeks away, the opening ceremony of the Sochi Winter Olympic may go off with a bang, literally, judging by the amount of "terrorist" chatter surrounding the games. Today however, it is more than just chatter: earlier the Russian media reported that Russian security forces had come across multiple unexplained deaths and explosive devices in a region near Sochi, resulting in an aggressive "anti-terrorism sweep."

The one item that caught our attention in the just released earnings was the GAAP EPS: a whopping loss of $2.19/share. Ok so, Alcoa added back a few things to get the Non-GAAP number: about $2.1 billion in goodwill impairment and restructuring charges to be precise - happens all the time. The only problem is that for Alcoa, this indeed happens all the time! The chart below shows just how freely Alcoa abuses the non-GAAP EPS definition, and how adding back charges has become ordinary course of business for the alluminum company. Very much in the same way as adding back litigation charges for JPM is now a quarterly ritual...

Another day of 'spot the difference' between AUDJPY and the S&P 500 saw an odd overnight spike in stocks fade soon after the US open, bounce higher (again) at the European close then oscillate around VWAP (with the ever-ready-to-please 330 RAMP). Stocks remain red for the year and still the worst start since 2008. "Most Shorted" names continue to outperform. Copper and WTI crude were notable underperformers (both ending an oddly similar -1.75% on the week so far) with oil rebounding modestly off 8-month lows into the close. VIX and credit markets were quiet - ending practically unch ahead of tomorrow's NFP. CAD weakness continues (-2% on the week) but the USD leaked lower to unch on the week. Treasuries rallied 2-3bps (and the curve flattened very modestly) with 2Y unch and 10Y -3bps.

"Remember the Greenspan/Bernanke put?" BNP's Julia Coronoado asks, well "welcome to the Bernanke/Yellen collar." As some expected, Coronada notes that there was substantial discussion in the December FOMC minutes about concerns about financial stability stemming from QE, and the role it plays alongside progress on their dual mandates in making monetary policy decisions.This implies a shift in the Fed's reaction-function. Simply put - the Fed will react to falling asset values that destabilize economy "and" asset values that rise too far and too fast or are fueled by leverage that may put economy at risk.

The following poll results from Gallup may represent the most significant domestic news story in 2014 to-date. Gallup polling in 2013 showed that the highest number of Americans now identify as Independents since it starting asking the question 25 years ago. Specifically, 42% identify as Independents, versus 31% as Democrats and 25% as Republicans. Even more interesting, the trend accelerated as the year progressed.

2013 may have been a bad year for Bill Gross, but nobody had it worse than John Taylor. The former head of FX concepts saw his hedge fund - once an FX trading behemoth and the largest in the world with $14 billion in AUM in 2007 - crash, burn, and file for bankruptcy as we reported previously. But the cherry on top was the revelation that a year before its filing, Taylor personally guaranteed some $5 million of the FX Concepts' debt owed to Asset Management Finance, a unit of Credit Suisse. Surely, such a sequence of events would be enough to turn even the staunchest financial addict away from the markets for ever. But not John Taylor - the former FX guru has a message for all of you: he is not only back, but is launching a newsletter.... oh and he has a Bloomberg terminal too.

Pleased to announce that #Bitcoin is live at #Overstock.com! http://t.co/mx9TFc8KNQ

— Overstock.com (@Overstock) January 9, 2014

In the first step towards President Obama's income inequality fight, he is unveiling "Promise Zones" today... we can't wait to hear this one..."Promise Zones are a new way of doing business,” the administration official said. “They will be led by local community leadership working toward a common goal … supported by the federal government.” Participants will get priority for federal grants and help applying from an array of agencies. Wonderful, sounds great - how are we paying for that again?