Archive - 2014

It would seems Reuben Kressel nailed it. The retail investor perfectly top-ticked his 500-share sell order on 12/27 and since Twitter shares have tumbled 25% - with plenty of volatility in between. As the world waits breathlessly for the firm's first earnings call later this month, it seems 'taking profits' is the new norm as firm after firm shifts their buy-buy-buy reccomendations to 'hold' or 'sell'.

The Wolf of Wall Street would be proud. Mathew Martoma, the alleged SAC Capital trader at the center of the largest insider trading scheme ever, was, Dealbook reports, expelled from Harvard Law School in 1999 for a false transcript of his grades. While Mr. Martoma's lawyer tried to keep court papers under cover, a summary on the court docketing system shows the judge ordered them unsealed. "Veritas" indeed...

Japanese consumer sentiment tumbled once again in the last quarter of 2013. The BoJ survey - released quarterly - showed the second consecutive drop in both current conditions and the outlook. This is the largest two-quarter collapse in the outlook for the Japanese consumer since 2007 as it appears the initial exuberance of Abenomics is collapsing as fast as Abe's approval ratings. We fear, perhaps, this loss of belief (which can surely only set back his hopes for firms to raise wages) is merely stoking his nationalist militarist persuasion - as indicated by his move last night.

If yesterday's 10 Year auction was a little on the weak side, stopping through the When Issued by 0.2 bps, there were no such problems for today's last of the week 29-year 10-month reopening auction, which just priced $13 billion of the previously issued CUSIP RD2, at a high yield of 3.899%, through the 3.906% WI. The strength was not only in the pricing, but the Bid to Cover as well, which came at 2.57, above last month's 2.35, and also above the 12 month trailing average of 2.45. Finally, the internals were strong as well, with Dealers taking down 38.1%, the lowest since October's 35.5%, leaving 44.4% for Indirects, above the 38.6% average, if a tad below last month's 46.0%, and Directs holding 17.5% of the final allotment, up from 12.5%, and above the 15.9% TTM average. As a result of the strong auction, the kneejerk reaction in the Ultra was a 10 tick higher move from 137.07 to 137.17, and also helped push the entire jittery complex higher.

At $91.70, front-month WTI crude prices have dropped to a fresh 7-month-low this morning. The mainstream media is already crowing of what this means for gas prices and how that will be an implicit "tax-cut" - even though gas prices remain at or near record-high levels for this time of year. The issue with this thinking, of course, is Brent crude (which more closely correlates to US gasoline prices) remains stubbornly high at around $107 as the spread between WTI and Brent surges over $15.

Governor Christie says he is "doing a lot of soul-searching," over the "callous indifference" displayed by his former campaign manager Bill Stepien (since asked to leave) and Chief of Staff Bridget Kelly (since fired). He was "disturbed by the tone and behavior and attitude" of the emails he saw (following his workout). The "heartbroken", "not a bully", Governor accepted responsibility for his staff's actions and is embarrased and humiliated... but "it's crazy man" to think he would resign...

Mess with us, we'll mess with you. That is the message one can derive from JPMorgan's surprise announcement that it plans to "sell or wind down its business of issuing prepaid cards for corporate payrolls and government tax refunds and benefits." Which also includes the infamous Electronic Benefits Transfer, or foodstamps, card. According to Reuters, the product, which has been offered with cash and treasury services to companies and governments, "had become a headache of risks in operations and regulations, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorized to speak publicly." In other words, JPM just told the government which has been going after it relentless for the past year, forcing JPM to rack up some $25 billion in litigation reserves, you can find someone else to manage your wholesale welfare program for nearly 50 million Americans.

Please welcome the nation's new chief slumlord, Janet Yellen. The previous top slumlord, Ben Bernanke, has retired from the position of Chief Slumlord (i.e. chair of the Federal Reserve) to the accolades of those who benefited from his extraordinary transfer of wealth from the many to the few. Why is the chairperson of the Fed the nation's top slumlord? Allow us to explain... We only need to understand two facts to understand the Fed's role as Slumlord.

It’s NEVER to Protect Us From Bad Guys

Traditionally, hedge fund managers that go public with multi-page slideshows bashing this or that asset, usually end up in tears (see Bill Ackman) as long as said asset is not some microcap, illiquid stock. That, however, has not stopped David Salanic of Tortus Capital Management to not only mass distribute a presentation highlighting his latest and greatest short idea but to create a website that implicitly highlights his investment thesis. The site in question is called http://rehabilitatingportugal.com/, and the asset that Salanic is bearish to quite bearish on, are Portuguese bonds.

USDJPY remains in charge of US equities this morning as hope sprang eternal for a few moments when the NASDAQ managed to go green for 2014 shortly after the open. However, the weakness in USDJPY began around Draghi's speech and stocks in the US inevitably caught down to the carry unwinds. Short-dated Treasuries continue to bleed higher in yield and the 5s30s curve is now its flattest in 4 months (and 2s30s 2-month flats) Credit markets have been waving a red flag for a few days and high-yield and investment-grade credit risk is now back at its widest since Dec 20th. VIX is leaking modestly higher as it seems managers prefer to 'sell' than 'hedge' as the realization of the Fed's QE-costs-and-benefits statement sink in.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has expressed how "outraged and deeply saddened" he is by the revelations that a lone-shooter in his team would close highway lanes to exact political retribution against anyone. In the tradition of the current White House, he saw/knew/heard nothing of course. Things just escalated a little more...

*US ATTNY IN NJ TO OPEN INQUIRY INTO LANE CLOSURES, NYT SAYS
*N.J. GOV. CHRISTIE SAID TO FIRE TOP AIDE BRIDGET KELLY:NY POST

We can only hope that the 'briefing' includes a Q&A as the always fiery Christie will, we are sure, come out swinging.

Stifel Nicolaus has been fined more than $1 million by FINRA for the "unsuitable sales of leveraged and inverse ETFs." While the fine in de minimus compared to the JPMorgan-esque amounts, the remarks by FINRA raise considerable risks for any apparent fiduciary bucket-shop promoting these popular instruments... "performance can quickly diverge from the performance of the underlying index or benchmark. It is possible that investors could suffer significant losses even if the long-term performance of the index showed a gain. This effect can be magnified in volatile markets." Nothing we don't already know but this time from a regulator...

According to Bill Gross the outlook for 2014 is all about inflation, and how it will impact bonds in the 1-5 maturity bucket: "I am amazed at the fascination and emphasis placed on the u-rate during employment Fridays. Bond prices will move (in some cases by points) with a minor up or down change in unemployment relative to expectations, but when it comes to the third little pig of the litter – inflation – no one seems to care. This number – the PCE annualized inflation rate – is released near the 20th of every month but you will not see CNBC or Bloomberg analysts waiting with bated breath for its release. I do. I consider it the critical monthly statistic for analyzing Fed policy in 2014. Why? Bernanke, Yellen and their merry band of Fed governors and regional presidents have told us so. No policy rate hike until both unemployment and inflation thresholds have been breached and even then “they’re not thresholds,” they’re forks in the road that may or may not lead in a different direction. If so, then 1-5 year bonds, combined with credit, volatility, curve rolldown, and a dollop of currency should float a bond investor’s boat in 2014 and avoid breaking the buck in total return space.... If PCE inflation stays below 2.0% and inflationary expectations don’t rise appreciably above 2.5%, then a 3-4% total return for 2014 is realistic. "

Financial markets have become increasingly obviously highly dependent on central bank policies. In a follow-up to Incrementum's previous chartbook, Stoerferle and Valek unveil the following 50 slide pack of 25 incredible charts to crucially enable prudent investors to grasp the consequences of the interplay between monetary inflation and deflation. They introduce the term "monetary tectonics' to describe the 'tug of war' raging between parabolically rising monetary base M0 driven by extreme easy monetary policy and shrinking monetary aggregate M2 and M3 due to credit deleveraging. Critically, Incrementum explains how this applies to gold buying decisions as they introduce their "inflation signal" indicator.