Archive - Jan 18, 2015

"What we need is cheap energy. We need cheap, liquid oil. When it’s high-priced it really messes up the economy. We need oil to run our cars and to operate our trucks and such things, but it needs to be cheap. And it suddenly is today. But, you have to be able to keep pulling it out at that same price. And the critical thing is, we can’t keep pulling it out at that price. What is going to happen, I’m afraid, is that once production goes down, we won’t be able to get it back up again. There’s several reasons..."

While a record amount of ink has been spilled praising the benefits of plunging crude price on the US consumer, so far this has manifested merely in soaring consumer confidence, if not in an actual boost to retail sales. Less has been written about the adverse side-effects of plunging oil, even though by now even the most “undisputed” permabulls have been forced to admit that the imminent collapse in capital spending is truly “unprecedented”, a phrase Goldman uses in the chart below.  So what does plunging CapEx actually mean for the economy, aside from a major haircut to 2015 GDP, and what other areas of the economy will be affected by the Saudi Arabian scorched earth war on the US shale industry?

There are more important factors than merely looking at the total size of the QE program that is apparently coming next week from the ECB. the greatest probability in my opinion, and the only way we believe Draghi can retain enough votes, is for the Council to reject risk sharing (as suggested in the Der Spiegel article). This means QE will be implemented by the National Central Banks who would be responsible for the purchasing of their own debt. We believe this structure is of critical importance, because unlike other ‘bail-out’ structures, such an action is anti-integration. It would be a step back-ward; a step away from being a union.

Practically presented with no comment, we could not quite believe the words coming out of Venezuela's President Maduro last night as he addressed the nation's concerns over mile-long lines for toothpaste, toilet-paper, bread, and soap:

*VENEZUELA MUST DEEPEN SOCIALISM TO IMPROVE ECONOMY: MADURO

Having apparently failed on his mission to Asia to garner enough support to drag oil prices up to the $100 level he "believes is fair," Maduro went on to explain how he will "change the food supply system, not the economic model," to solve the nation's crisis, since "most of the private sector are parasitic bums."

America: Land of the Thief, Home of the Slave.

Move over Rover...

Top ten things that investors will likely be watching in the week ahead.

"Why stand on formalities? Let's get the ball rolling right now," Mr. Obama said at a recent stop in Tennessee. In previous years, As Dow Jones reports, the content of the speech was a closely guarded secret, leaving reporters, politicians, lobbyists and interest groups scrambling for tidbits and gossip in the days and weeks leading up to the event. But this year, much of Mr. Obama's policy wish list and broad themes will be well-known when he walks onto the House floor next week. Here is what the president is widely expected to focus on in his address next week...

Next week will be crucial for Super Mario...

And There Are More Blacks Under Correctional Control Today Than In 1850 Slaveholding America