Archive - Jan 23, 2015

Any hedge funds that had an even modestly long EUR position are being FXCMed right now.

Today's market action is largely a continuation of the QE relief rally, where - at least for the time being - the market bought the rumor for over 2 years and is desperate to show it can aslo buy the news. As a result, the European multiple-expansion based stock ramp has resumed with the Eurostoxx advancing for a 7th day to extend their highest level since Dec. 2007. As we showed yesterday, none of the equity action in Europe is based on fundamentals, but is the result of multiple expansion, with the PE on European equities now approaching 20x, a surge of nearly 70% in the past 2 years. But the real story is not in equities but in bonds where the perfectly expected frontrunning of some €800 billion in European debt issuance over the next year, taking more than 100% of European net supply, has hit new record level.

Gold in euros surged 3% yesterday after Mario Draghi unveiled his QE 'bazooka' as the ECB announced it’s €1 trillion quantitative easing (QE) experiment. The possibility of the very sharp, abrupt spike in gold prices in euro, dollars and all fiat currencies - akin to the Swiss franc move last week - is a real one.