Archive - Jan 8, 2015

To question money-printing as the one-size-fits-all solution to every economic problem is to question the power structure of the status quo.

Will there be Parity in the EUR/USD? Will OIL build on a possible support level?

Initial claims dropped 4k on the week but missed expectations, printing 294k (vs 290k exp). This is a level first seen in July 2014 as the trend of improvement has ended for claims (the biggest 3 month rise in over a year). Layoffs were dominated by MI where manufacturing and waste management industries suffered (and Texas saw fewer layoffs but a shortened workweek). Perhaps more worrying, the continuing claims data surged by over 100k to 2.452 million (stunningly on a non-adjusted basis continuing claims surged 407k).

Despite stressing time and again that the ECB cannot dictate policy within individual nation states in Europe, Reuters reports Draghi's henchmen are playing 'bad cop' to Germany's 'good cop' for now as they threaten the withdrawal of Greek financial system funding if reforms are not carried out post election. Greek stocks are falling once again (led by the banks) and default risk has soared, with 5Y CDS +250bps at 1555bps.

• French policewoman killed in shoot-out, hunt deepens for militant killers (Reuters)
• The Bold Charlie Hebdo Covers the Satirical Magazine Was Not Afraid to Run (BBG)
• Evans Says Fed Shouldn’t Rush Rate Rise as Inflation Undershoots (BBG)
• Oil holds above $51 as traders search for floor (Reuters)
• Gross Helps Fuel New Fund With His Own Cash (WSJ)
• ECB warns Greek funding access hinges on keeping bailout (Reuters)
• Greece Jolts QE Juggernaut as ECB Gauges Deflation Risk (BBG)
• Analysts Say There's No Telling How Low Oil Prices Could Go (BBG)
• Scientists find antibiotic that kills bugs without resistance (Reuters)

Following yesterday's shocking murder of 12 people at the Charlie Hebdo headquarters, there has been much confusion and many rapidly moving parts in the hours that followed as authorities try to catch the two remaining killers, the 32 and 34-year old Kouachi brothers, after earlier the youngest of three French suspects turned himself in to police after, as BFM TV reported, he saw his in social media. The arrest was confirmed by an official at the Paris prosecutor's office said. Several people linked to two other suspected attackers were also in custody, the news agency AFP reported. The manhunt for the two remaining suspects goes on.

After subdued trading in the overnight session until a little after 8pm Eastern, algos went into overdrive just around the time the Fed's 2015 voting member and uberdove Charlie Evans told reporters that "raising rates would be a catastrophe", hinting that the first rate hike would likely be - as usual - pushed back from market expectations of a mid-2015 liftoff cycle into 2016 or beyond (but don't blame the US, it is the "international situation's" fault), in the process punking the latest generation of Eurodollar traders yet again. Whatever the thinking, S&P futures soared on the comments and were higher by just under 20 points at last check even as Crude has failed to pick up and the 10Y is barely changed at 2.00%.

Cry if you want to, but the dollar is stronger.  Deny it if you want to, but the US economy is more vibrant now than the Europe or Japan.   This is what is shaping the investment climate, if you are interested.