Archive - Oct 14, 2015

Back in August, we brought you the story of 1MDB, the Malaysian development bank turned-Najib slush fund with deep ties to Goldman. About a month later, the FBI announced an investigation into the fund after Malaysia arrested a former official who was trying to fly to New York to urge US authorities to look into the whole debacle. Now, as WSJ reports, the FBI and DOJ are looking into Goldman's role.

"The big battle preparations in that area are clear. There is a large mobilization of the Syrian army ... elite Hezbollah fighters, and thousands of Iranians who arrived in stages in recent days."

“In a world where the value of paper money is affirmatively aimed at being degraded by central bank policy, it’s kind of surprising to me that gold can’t catch a bid...I like gold. I believe its under-owned. It should be a part of every investment portfolio, maybe five to ten percent."

Capital Economics "expects gold could hit $1,200 before the end of this year, rising to $1,400 by the end of 2016”

Retail Sales (ex Auts) dropped 0.3% in September, the 2nd drop in a row, the biggest drop since January (at the heart of the weather-driven economic weakness). For the first time since February, the 'Control Group' Retail Sales dropped (down 0.1% vs +0.3% expectations) as sales dropped in 7 of 13 categories (but notably autos rose significantly but was offset by a collapse in gas station spending). Notably 27 out of 27 'experts' agreed that the control group sales data woul dnot be negative.. wrong! Year-over-year data shows sustained stagnant growth in retail sales historically aligned with a recessionary environment.

"when this sort of thing happens following bullish moves it has almost always signaled the end of the bull-run. Couple this unanimity of price movement with the “reversals” noted above and we have a situation that  concerns us greatly. Indeed it concerns us enough to exit our long positions entirely upon receipt of this commentary… Certainly we do not like switching positions this quickly, for we appear to be flippant and foolhardy, but history tells us that we have no choice."

Gold had a busy night as China's significantly weaker Yuan 'Fix' sent the precious metal higher top test the 200-day moving average and Europe's open (Asia's close) sparked a modest flash-crash retracing the entire move.

• Democratic rivals back Clinton on emails, but little else in scrappy debate (Reuters)
• Hillary Clinton Shows Relentless Efficiency in First Democratic Debate (WSJ)
• U.S. Examines Goldman Sachs Role in 1MDB Transactions (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Says Trading Pain Isn't Over After Third-Quarter Slump (BBG)
• Islamic State battles insurgents near Aleppo as army prepares assault (Reuters)
• Oil Slide Means `Almost Everything' for Sale as Deals Accelerate (BBG)

While yesterday's JPM results missed from the top to the bottom, coupled with a surprising and aggressive deleveraging of the bank's balance sheet which has shrunk by over $150 billion in 2015 mostly on the back of a decline in deposits, Bank of America reported numbers which were largely the opposite when it printed a modest beat on both the top line with $20.9 billion in revenues (adjusted sales of $20.6Bn vs Exp. $20.5Bn), down $500 million from a year ago, and the bottom line: generating $0.35 in adjusted earnings in the quarter, 2 cents better than the $0.33 consensus estimate.

When China was closed for one week at the end of September, something which helped catalyze the biggest weekly surge in US stocks in years, out of sight meant out of mind, and many (mostly algos) were hoping that China's problems would miraculously just go away. Alas after yesterday's latest trade data disappointment, it was once again China which confirmed that nothing is getting better with its economy in fact quite the contrary, and one quick look at the chart of wholesale, or factory-gate deflation, below shows that China is rapidly collapsing to a level last seen in 2009 because Chinese PPI plunged by 5.9% Y/Y, its 43rd consecutive drop - a swoon which is almost as bad as Caterpillar retail sales data.