Archive - Oct 20, 2015

While we knew the quantitative answer to the biggest conundrum stumping economists, namely that Americans bought even more gas with their gas savings, we were missing the qualitative one. Courtesy of the NYT we now learn that not only did consumers not redirect their spending to other discretionary items, but engaged in an act that has stunned economists around the globe: they don’t just buy more gasoline; they bought more expensive gasoline!

The recent bi-polar behavior in spot-VIX empirically supports the theory that a structural weakness now exists in this market by crowding of short volatility players. Short volatility sellers ridicule the fact that the prospectus for the iPath Long Volatility ST Index (VXX) clearly states that the ETF has an expected long-term return of zero. They should ask themselves, is it better to know with certainty you are going to go bankrupt slowly, or be completely ignorant of the fact you will go bankrupt suddenly.

With the ticker symbol RACE, what could possibly go wrong?

Pursuing a blasphemous vendetta against a 'dumb creature'...

For the 4th week in a row, US Crude inventories rose according to API. With a larger than expected 7.1 million barrel build (3.5mm exp.), which follows DOE's reported 7.56 mm build last week, it is clear that stocks are piling up considerably faster than expected. The reaction was an immediate algo slam to the lows of the day...

Things aren’t looking great for Harley Davidson. The Milwaukee-based fabricator of the iconic bikes just announced it will cut hundreds of jobs by the end of the year. 

The uncertainties are awkward, but we’re all trapped in a gigantic mess not of our own making. As Voltaire is believed to have said, doubt may be uncomfortable, but certainty is absurd. Almost as absurd as believing that a tiny group of unelected bankers can read the runes of the global economy and manage the price of money accordingly.

The next round of the Crisis beckons. And this time around, the Fed’s hands are tied.

"Data"-Dependent...

In what is truly historic flip flop, just a month after Consumer Reports said the Tesla Model S is the best car it has ever tested, the agency has not only yanked its original review, but has come out with what is clearly a hitjob sponsored by another highest bidder, aimed squarely at Elon Musk's overpriced science experiment.

Remember that September jobs report when the US supposedly only added 142,000 jobs, which was so bad it sent stocks soaring the most in years? As it turns out the sum was far greater than the parts, because according to today's BLS breakdown of jobs by state, not only did more than half, or 28, states lose jobs in September, but the total number of jobs losses, at 120,000, was about 20% more than the cumulative job gains of 99,000.

On the basis of the fundamental economic backdrop, Goldman Sachs sees VIX fair-value at least 19, with low-teens more consistent with ISM in the upper 50s (not the current sub-50 levels). However, credit (and FX) protection markets imply significantly more risk ahead with CDX HY stalled at 2month lows (while VIX hits 3 month lows). Given historical relationships, credit markets suggest a VIX of 25 is more consistent with reality (especially as Skew tail risk rolls down to normal risk).

Rising rents have been cited as a reason millennials aren’t moving out of their parents’ basements. But higher rents could force some boomers to move in with their children... it is shaping up to be a crisis for some boomers for the following reasons...

With less than two weeks until a possible debt ceiling "accident" and with investors dumping T-Bills at near record pace, Ron Paul rages that any delay in, or opposition to, raising the debt ceiling will inevitably be met with hand-wringing over Congress’ alleged irresponsibility. But the real irresponsible act would be for Congress to raise the debt ceiling.