Archive - Oct 21, 2015

With default risk soaring, and Ackman's dreams dissolving, Valeant Pharma is crashing again today (halted three times and down over 28%) following a report by Citron Research that claims to have a "smoking gun" on the company's activities, claiming Valeant is using pharmacies related to Philidor to store inventory and record the transactions as sales.

The bloodbathery in Treasury Bills continues this morning with11/12/15 Bills pushing up to 14bps (from 0bps on Friday). Despite the "hopes" of Treasury Secretary Jack Lew that the US avoids a crisis, he warns "there's no margin for error" and with GOP Leadership talks still ongoing (as Paul Ryan lays down his demands), it appears markets are not taking any chances for now.

The drop had begun before the US open but shortly after the Ferrari IPO opened (and The Bank of Canada maintained its rates), all hell seemed to break loose. Bond yields started tumbling, stocks broke lower (S&P now red), and commodities all plunged in sync...

With its IPO price of $52, Ferrari's relatively small float is in great (speculative) demand apparently:

*FERRARI OPENS AT $60.00/SHR, IPO PRICED AT $52

However, after trading up to $60.97, it seems some profit-taking on the "limited to 10,000 cars" automaker is in order...

"Then tell me, future boy, who's President of Brazil in 2016? Then who's vice president?"

"...we are buyers of any intra-and inter day weakness on balance for that is what one is to do in a bull market."

“If Congress fails to raise the nation’s debt ceiling by [November 3], the US could risk a first-ever default on its obligations”.

As WTI Crude tests new lows this morning (Dec contract $45.32) after API reported a huge build, we can't help but wonder "what happens next" in Dow Transports as the exuberant index has decoupled from oil for the 3rd time in a week... the only saving grace for the collapse in oil - Gartman warned "this could get very, very ugly and do so very, very quickly."

As the world places its 'life' in the hands of a few unelected members of ivory tower trusting them to centrally plan the global utopia, that faith may be shattered by Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco. As Bloomberg reports, Visco and seven other people were place under investigation according to chief prosecutor. While the statement does not list allegations, court documents reveal alleged corruption, fraud, and abuse of office.

There may not be many biotechs with positive cash flows out out there, but the 4th most profitable, Biogen (after Gilead, Amgen and Shire), saw its shares halted moments ago ahead of reporting earnings, which were a blowout. However what is most confusing is why, in light of the company's glowing earnings and impressive guidance, it also announced it would be laying off 11% of its workforce, or about 800 workers, while cutting a number of pipeline programs.

• Global Stock Markets Edge Higher Though Global Growth Concerns Weigh (WSJ)
• Nikkei up 1.9% because Japan export growth slows sharply, raising fears of recession (Reuters)
• Saudis Risk Draining Financial Assets in 5 Years, IMF Says (BBG)
• Syria's Assad flies to Moscow to thank Russia's Putin for air strikes (Reuters)
• US Prosecutor Preet Bharara Probing Daily Fantasy-Sports Business (WSJ)
• Syrian army denies Russian ground forces fighting in Syria (Reuters)

26 years ago, today was envisioned as day when cars flew, holographic movies were box office hits, hoverboards roamed, and people were fired by fax. None of the happened. Instead the only "back to the future" moment this morning is a deja vu one we have seen every day for the past 7 years: bad economic news leading to surging stocks.

For a gold miner with dollar-denominated debt, the right thing to do is to hedge the gold price. It's interesting that at the LBMA conference in Vienna, a panel discussed the epic collapse of hedging. Why?