Archive - Oct 22, 2015

It's a long way down...

As John Kerry prepares to meet Sergei Lavrov in Vienna, Putin and Assad are drawing up plans to call for elections in Syria. The idea, of course, is that Assad will prevail in a landslide, allowing Moscow to claim that the people have spoken and the regime must rightfully be restored. 

Despite today's ridiculous melt-up in US equities - all driven by USDJPY-correlated algos - after the completion of over 9 months of this year, the median stock in the United States has officially gone nowhere.

Goldman: "we think a 10 bps (surprise) deposit cut is worth two big figures downside in EUR/$. At the very least, following today’s press conference, a December deposit cut is now possible, meaning that EUR/$ – which went into the meeting at around 1.13 – should reprice to 1.11....  there is a good chance that December will instead bring an actual augmentation of the QE program, such that downside in EUR/$ might be larger. The kind of scenarios our European economics team envisage imply downside of at least 5-6 big figures from here, i.e. should see us return to near the 1.05 low that EUR/$ made in March."

After running stops above $46 this morning, WTI Crude has tumbled back to test yestrerday's $44 handle lows... must be all that "growth" that Draghi promised...

"The gratuitous labeling of Iran as part of a worldwide “axis of evil” by President Bush combined with strong U.S. criticisms of Iran’s nascent nuclear program and its meddling in Iraq led Tehran to the view that Washington had embarked on a course of confrontation in the region that would soon set a kinetic focus on Iran. Even Iran’s positive engagement in helping repair the post Taliban political environment in Afghanistan was met with indifference by Washington."

History supports two narratives of rising inequality leading to social disintegration and political instability: one is inequality between the top classes and everyone else, and the the other is rising inequality within the top classes. When the pie starts shrinking and there aren't enough slices to satisfy the rising expectations of the top class, the elites splinter in profound political disunity.

So much for The Fed stepping back to weaken the USD and save US Corporate earnings...

Spot the difference...

Complacency seemed ready to set back in, with Glencore stock recently rising as high as its recent equity offering price of 125p. And then today we noticed that not only is Glencore's CDS back above 700 bps, the widest it has been in three weeks, but that another mining company has fallen into the market's crosshairs, this time Belgium-based (with Zurich HQ) Nyrstar NV, Europe's largest refined-zinc producer, whose stock crashed the most since its initial public offering in 2007, while it bonds tumbled to a yield of 19%, suggesting a default may be imminent.

Presented with little comment aside to say... WTF!!!

S&P 500 Futures just broke above the 200-day moving-average for the first time since August 19th. With crude, bonds, and credit all decoupled from this exuberance, one wonders what happens next... though clearly all-time highs will be required to enable The Fed to raise rates in October (currently a 6% probability)

"In recent weeks and months we’ve seen reversals in the equities markets time after time and far, far too often. They have become common rather than uncommon events and this is the problem we confront today. We are growing weary of doing so and we are making that weariness evident here this morning. Flipping back and forth does no one any good, but flip we must if history’s lessons are to be heeded."

Just when you thought it was safe to BTFD, Valeant is re-crashing. After bouncing back yesterday afternoon, reportedly thanks to Ackman "buying millions more shares," news this morning that Quebec's regulator is watching the Valeant situation "very seriously" and said in a statement that the "allegations are worrisome" and is checking to see if Valeant didn't run afoul of regulations, has prompted more bloodbathery in the stock, now down over 16%...

A beleaguered Deutsche Bank is set to slash the investment bank bonus pool by some $566 million as John Cyran's effort to right a sinking ship continues. As Bloomberg reports, "no decision has been taken and the biggest reductions are likely to impact employees in the fixed-income business. Some managing directors may have their entire bonus scrapped, according to the person."