Archive - Oct 23, 2015

Dear Bureau of Labor Statistics: please pay careful attention to this case study of how your CPI "inflation" gauge, hedonically, seasonally-adjusted or otherwise, is completely inaccurate, and how what you record as 0% inflation is really 72%!

The insane lie that cultural Marxists seem to have conned themselves and others into believing is that their “activism” is somehow anti-establishment. In fact, social justice is constantly coddled and supported by the establishment. From politicians to judges to media pundits to the blogosphere, the overwhelming majority of people in positions of traditional power (even in supposedly conservative circles) have been more than happy to become the enforcers of the social justice warrior agenda, an agenda representing a minuscule portion of the public. There is no establishment for the PC army to fight; the establishment bias works vastly more in favor of their ideology than any other. Cultural Marxists ARE the establishment.

With a birth-rate at record-lows and death-rate at record-highs, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe unveiled a new set of 'arrows' a few weeks ago to 'fix' the demographic disaster the nation faces. At the time, Abe was long of "bold proposals" but short of actual policies to encourage the nation to make more babies (despite dwindling interest in sex). As Bloomberg reports, here are a number of options that Abe's new minister for demographics Kato could introduce to slow the downward spiral of population...

“I think he's now mounting a serious campaign,” a South Carolina Republican said. “His stump speech had matured and even though the novelty of his candidacy is wearing off, his straight talk is appealing to people who are so sick of being lied to by the political class.”

"On the current trajectory, we doubt the market can stay stable beyond a few quarters, especially if some SOE and/or LGFV bonds indeed default."
- Bank of America

When it comes to “prepping”, many among the elite take things to an entirely different level. 

Just a few months ago, Hamptons 2nd home-hunting was an elitist's dream. Home sales were surging (highest sicne 2007's peak) even as home prices soared (in the face of bad weather and economic angst). But that has all changed. As Bloomberg reports, sales of luxury homes in the are have tumbled 16% YoY in Q3, prices have plunged 18% YoY, and inventories are surging (up 34%). The reason is simple, as one realtor notes, "the international buyer has been absent."

"Stunning, historic, mind-boggling, and catastrophic" is how Weather Underground's Jeff Masters sums up Hurricane Patricia, which intensified to an incredible-strength Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds overnight as it approaches the Mexican coast. As The NY Times reports, The World Meteorological Organization warned that the hurricane’s strength was comparable to that of Typhoon Haiyan, which caused devastation in the Philippines in 2013, and so Mexico has declared a state of emergency for Puerto Vallarta (with officials warning that storm surges could cause waves of up to 39 feet) as she is forecast to hit the coast between 6 and 10pm ET. Hurricane Patricia is "uncharted territory."

What this economic crisis does highlight is that short-term success should never be taken as proof of a long-term solution. And this is particularly true when it comes to quasi-socialist and extreme populist governments. In the long-run, countries that follow these policies have a consistent track record, which is basically the same as what we’re witnessing now in Venezuela.

“October is a particularly dangerous month to speculate in stocks. Followed by July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” – Mark Twain

Today the Peoples Bank of China cut the benchmark interest rate by .25% and lowered banks’ reserve requirements by .5%. The measure is supposed to spur growth and make life a little easier on debt-ridden Chinese companies. In the immediate term it may give a slight boost to the economy, but there is no chance this measure, or others like it, will keep the Chinese economy from slowing much further in the years ahead. Let us explain.

At a time when the US and China are practically at arms over the artificial islands in the South China Seas, with the US sending warships on location to patrol (despite White House Spokesman Josh Earnest saying on Oct. 8 that U.S. warships "should not provoke significant reaction from the Chinese") and a stunned China responding "What On Earth Makes Them Think We Will Tolerate This", the last thing we thought we would see right now was three Chinese warships about to port in Florida's Naval Station Mayport. And yet according to USNI that is precisely what is about to happen.