Archive - Oct 6, 2015

"Our model indicates the US equity market could potentially drop by 30% in the event of an ‘EM lost decade’ and by 60% in the event of a China hard landing (i.e. S&P 500 back to its lows)."

Courtesy of Sharelynx' Nick Laird who tracks precious metal premium by vendor, we continue our recent series showing the discrepancy between paper and physical metals, in this case silver. As Nick notes, APMEX price premiums are a lot higher than the Monex. And as can be seen in the charts below, premiums rose above 50% for 1-19 coins & above 40% for 500 plus coins.

"The strong stock market rally during the last few days has pushed the S&P 500 near its highest closing level since the correction began in late August. This has boosted optimism that the recent selloff may be ending. While this could certainly prove to be the case, we remain less sanguine that the vulnerabilities, which initially produced this correction, have yet to be resolved. Ultimately, we expect a more fearful investment culture suggesting a final capitulation and more importantly, a lower stock market valuation level able to withstand a less hospitable recovery as the economy nears full employment."

"In the event of a downgrade by Standard & Poor’s and/or Moody’s from current ratings to the level(s) immediately below...  there are $4.5 billion of bonds outstanding, where a 125bps margin step-up would apply, in the event that the bonds were rated sub-investment grade by either major ratings agency."

The US has now joined Canada, Cyprus, New Zealand, the UK, and Germany with plans to seize bank accounts during the next financial crisis. 

"The closest has been within a handful of miles of our remotely piloted aircraft"...

"This is a real war on Sunnis, their countries and their identities. Join a jihad against the enemy of God and your enemy and Muslims will back you every way they can."

"He’s no babbling idiot nor is his life worthless. He’s very intelligent and is working on a career in filmmaking. My 18 years worth of experience with and knowledge about Asperger’s syndrome is paying off." 

"As you know, the environment for global macro fundamentals-based trading continues to be challenging. That factor, combined with the lack of certainty over when a recovery will take hold, led us to conclude that the time was right to return capital to you."

If circumstances of any incident appear not to add up, it’s pertinent to thoroughly examine the current narrative for signs the State is attempting to mold public opinion — because it is there you will find the truth that you’re not being told. In the case of MSF, a massive treaty cum trade deal involving U.S. interests in another part of the world from the tragedy in Kunduz can offer, perhaps, insight which might otherwise seem unrelated. As it turns out, MSF have been particularly vocal critics of the impending Trans-Pacific Partnership — and their criticism hasn’t gone unnoticed.

According to what is arguably the most respected polling organization in the US, consumer confidence has crashed to the lowest level in a year. On the other hand, according to a tax-exempt research organization, consumer confidence is not only the highest it has been in 2015, but it practically the highest since 2007.Someone is lying, we leave it up to readers to decide who.

The recent scare that investors may be slowly (or not so slowly) waning in the primary market for US Treasurys is rapidly becoming a distant memory, and after yesterday's 3 Month bills pricing at 0.000% for the first time ever, today's strong 3 Year auction should end any debate, if only for the time being, about interest in US paper.

Most Americans can see the spoiling incongruity of his grandeur. He claims, somehow, to defend monetary policy as it supposedly removes and prevents all the really bad downside at the same time the world is still rebuilding from the last one while seriously contemplating the next one. As 2008 proved, timing was never his strong point; as his oped proves, duplicity is.

"Central bank credibility is priceless and they desperately need to reclaim the intellectual high ground. The continuous public back-and-forth through speeches and attempts at expectation management just aren’t working."