Archive - Oct 8, 2015

This is the story of a veteran NYSE specialist who noticed manipulation in the NYSE market open Imbalance, loudly complained to the NYSE, was ignored, then decided to profit from said manipulation himself... and got busted.  And that's where the story begins...

As The GOP lurches from turmoil to chaos, following speaker-in-waiting McCarthy's pulling out, Fox News Bret Baier reports that Speaker John Boehner has agreed to stay on as Speaker - not just until the Caucus nominates someone - but, until that person can confirm 218 votes on the House floor (needed to take the Speaker’s gavel).

While Alcoa did have the usual justifications for the collapse in its Q3 sales and EPS, blaming what else but China, the real culprit is none of that. Because, as regular readers know too well, with Alcoa it is all about the Non-GAAP addbacks.... and the problem here is that while in previous quarters Alcoa's "restructuring" charges were vast, usually eclipsing the actual GAAP earnings number, in Q3 they tumbled to "only" $66 million - the lowest since March 2013.

We're often asked whether we really believe that government and policymakers intentionally create laws and policies that hurt the people and help themselves.  The answer is typically that, “if you’re asking me this question you know I do but you don’t believe me; so either do your own research or continue to live in the world as you wish to perceive it.  I’m not here to beg you to open your f##king eyes.”

I got your back...

"Thanks to President Obama’s leadership and the determination and sacrifice of the American people, we’ve worked our way out of that ditch and put our economy on sounder footing. Now we have to keep going.

To prevent irresponsible behavior on Wall Street from ever again devastating Main Street, we need more accountability, tougher rules and stronger enforcement. I have a plan to build on the progress we’ve made under President Obama and do just that."

Because the worst jobs data in years is reason to BTFD at a record pace... what a farce...

Forget Norway. Japan. Iceland. Switzerland. Or any of the other places around the world that are notorious for being painful on the wallet. Venezuela is now the most expensive country in the world, hands down. To give you an idea, the cost of a 15-minute taxi ride to the beach yesterday afternoon totaled an eye-popping $158.

UPDATE: Stocks are now soaring after we noted the initial reaction...

A decidedly dovish FOMC Minutes, warning that the economy is not ready for rate-hikes, has driven rate-hike odds to their lows once again. December and January odds are now below 50% and markets are reacting with bond, crude, and bullion buying, dollar selling and stocks uncertainty.

"During their discussion of economic conditions and monetary policy, participants indicated that they did not see the changes in asset prices during the intermeeting period as bearing significantly on their policy choice except insofar as they affected the outlook for achieving the Committee’s macroeconomic objectives and the risks associated with that outlook."

The Saudis Hate Iran Because It’s NOT a Monarchy

WSJ’s Fed whisperer is always good for a bit of Eccles propaganda and so, for whatever it's worth to you, we present the following Hilsy interpretation of the just-released minutes from the “most important” Fed meeting in recent history.

Given the tumble and stock save since September's infamous "chickening out" FOMC Meeting, investors hope today's minutes will provide some color on just how close Janet and her merry men were to pulling the trigger:

• *FED OFFICIALS SAID `PRUDENT' TO WAIT FOR CLARITY ON OUTLOOK
• *FOMC MINUTES: MOST PARTICIPANTS SEE LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MET THIS YR
• *FOMC MINUTES: ALL BUT ONE MEMBER SAID ECON COND DIDN'T WARRANT HIKE

With all the blame pinned on global turmoil (which has now "calmed" apparently) the S&P 500 has roundtripped to unchanged post-FOMC and given these minutes which suggest this was not a close-call at all. However, this was before the Sept payrolls data.

Pre-FOMC Minutes: S&P Futs 1988.25, 10Y 2.095%, Gold $1145, EUR 1.1285

"The force that they have deployed down there is actually quite impressive for a rapid deployment of a week or so. It is all arms, combined arms, attack aircraft, it is the attack helicopters and artillery, rocket artillery. NATO is ready and able to defend all allies, including Turkey against any threats."