Archive - Oct 2015

Following Marc Faber's reality check on China recently, Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass took a swing tonight noting that "China's 7% GDP growth is a farce," and adding that, just as we detailed previously, China's credit cycle has begun and non-performing loans will rise rapidly leading to an emerging Asia banking crisis ahead. Japanese markets continue to entertain with "someone" insta-ramping NKY Futs 100 points at the open only to give it all back as USDJPY slides back towards 120.00 (and 10Y JGB yields drop below 30bps for the first time in 6 months).

Sorry Fed, here is why your attempt at terminal reflation was doomed from day one.

It's not a good time for this. 

At the heart of the European Commission's philosophy is the implicit acceptance that investors' rights take precedence over the public's rights -- in this case, those concerning the environment. Everything in the leaked sustainable chapter is couched in terms of aspirations -- the US and EU are encouraged to do the right thing as far as sustainable development is concerned, but there are few, if any, obligations or enforcement mechanisms. When it comes to protecting investors, on the other hand, everything is compulsory, backed up by supranational tribunals that can impose arbitrarily large fines, payable by the public. Although it is true that governments are given the "right" to legislate as they wish when it comes to the environment, investors are given the "right" to sue those governments black and blue if they attempt to do so.

Have you noticed that things have gotten eerily quiet in the month of October? For those that don’t want to believe that hard times are on the way, they can take comfort in the eerie period of calm that we are experiencing right now. What they don’t realize is that this truly is “the calm before the storm”, and the global economic crisis that is ahead of us is going to be far beyond what most people ever dared to imagine was possible.

Former head of the NSA, Keith Alexander, has been a busy guy since he left government. Having avoided any accountability whatsoever despite systematically using the U.S. Constitution as toilet paper, Mr. Alexander is doing what every government official does upon leaving office. He’s trying to grab as much money as possible.

Over the course of the past four weeks, Russia has captured the world’s attention with Moscow’s “unexpected” intervention in Syria’s protracted civil war. For those interested, we present the following infographic which endeavors to outline “everything we know” about Russia’s deployment in Syria from sorties flown out of Latakia, to overflight denials, to cruise missile strikes.

"In face of the US harassment, Beijing should deal with Washington tactfully and prepare for the worst. This can convince the White House that China, despite its unwillingness, is not frightened to fight a war with the US in the region, and is determined to safeguard its national interests and dignity. Beijing ought to carry out anti-harassment operations. We should first track the US warships. If they, instead of passing by, stop for further actions, it is necessary for us to launch electronic interventions, and even send out warships, lock them by fire-control radar and fly over the US vessels."

What’s refreshing about Trump is the directness with which he expresses his psychopathy. For example, candidates such as Hillary Clinton sugar-coat theirpsychopathy, or even find ways to get their interviewers to join eagerly in their expressions of it (camaraderie with power-holders), but they don’t say such blatant things as (to paraphrase Trump here), “After we raped them — which we shouldn’t have done — we should have stolen from them, and we should still be  stealing from them.”

As CNN reports, "the U.S. is considering increasing its attacks on ISIS through more ground action and airstrikes, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said Tuesday. Carter told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the U.S. 'won't hold back' from supporting partners carrying out such attacks or from 'conducting such missions directly, whether by strikes from the air or direct action on the ground.'"

News That Matters

"... if you look at what is supporting equity prices - how much of that support is coming from real economic activity versus from using stock buybacks, using cash on balance sheet for stock buybacks, or mergers and acquisitions, to reduced competition in the marketplace. These are the sort of stories that if there were a small increase in interest rates, you would temper some of that frothiness. Eliminating the incentive to engage in that kind of activity seems to me to be a good idea... There would be a proportion of the population that would have less capital gains - but they’ve been enjoying very big capital gains, and it is a narrow segment of the population."

The weakness seen in world economic activity is partly the result of the lack of a real purge of the financial system in 2008. It has become unimaginable to let entire parts of the system collapse, and the titling of some financial institutions as “systemic” is part of this logic. Policymakers attempting to keep unhealthy economic and financial institutions alive are making a mistake. The very essence of capitalism lies in the process of creative destruction. What we see here is not a way out of the crisis. Instead, we are on the edge of a new financial disaster.