Archive - Oct 2015

• China export trade: -8.8% year to date
• China import trade: -17.6% year to date
• Industrial output crude steel: -3% year to date
• Cement output: -3.2% year over year
• Industrial output electricity: -3.1% year over year

and so on...

Free stuff? While Bernie is sincere about "helping people," as Ben Garrison notes, it's the middle class and poor will pay for it. There's no such thing as a free lunch, but real freedom is worth preserving.

Yes, the United States is one of the greatest places in the world... to be a consumer. If you want to shop, spend, and consume, the US is pretty damn near #1 in the world. But if you want to build. If you want to create. If you want to be a producer in the United States... it’s a whole different story.

After sending robots into the Fukushima nuclear reactor (and seeing them mysteriously die), perhaps this is the reason why Japanese officials have decided to re-start the building of a huge ice-wall for 'containment'. As Fukushima Diary reports, TEPCO’s camera caught a possible aquatic living creature in retained coolant water of Reactor 3.

The previous Bubble was of the Fed’s making, and our central bank lost control. It became a Hobson’s Choice issue in the eyes of the Fed, and they fully accommodated the Bubble. These days, the Fed and global central bankers face a similar but much more precarious Bubble Dynamic: The Fed specifically targeted higher securities market prices as its prevailing post-mortgage finance Bubble (“helicopter money”) reflationary mechanism. This ensured that the Fed would again be unwilling to impose any monetary restraint before it would then become too risky to remove accommodation (Einstein’s definition of insanity?). In concert, global central bankers now aggressively accommodate financial Bubbles.

Far from being some trivial problem that can be fixed by pressing "print", central banks operating from a negative equity position face the possibility of i) losing their independence as they have to be recapitalized at the behest of the government, ii) being forced into policy decisions (or, perhaps more appropriately "in"decisions) that they might not otherwise make, and iii) losing the ability to control the narrative, thus heightening market concerns about the loss of omnipotence.

It’s no secret that the Social Security system is effectively one giant Ponzi scheme. Actually, I think it’s worse. That’s because the government uses force and the threat of force to coerce people into it. People don’t have the option to opt out. They either pay the tax for Social Security or someone with a gun will show up sooner or later. I imagine Bernie Madoff’s firm would have lasted a lot longer had he been able to operate this way.

America is a nation divided, not only upon the means we should use to attain our ends in the world, but upon the ends themselves.

"Three topics dominated our client discussions this week: (1) Hedge fund performance in the wake of the collapse in Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) during the past five days; (2) cash return to shareholders, especially buyback activity; and (3) 3Q results."

Equity markets have not priced a meaningful slowdown in global corporate earnings. They are still pricing in central banker commentary... for now. History teaches us that equity turbulence accompanied by meaningful economic softness often marks the turn from a secular bull market in to a bear market.

This is also why the debt ceiling needs to be raised every year, and the US has doubled the national debt over the last 8 years.

Shinzo tackles negative demographics...

...more Venzuelans than Americans believe their children's financial futures will be more secure than their own...

Like medical chemotherapy, Iceland's economic chemotherapy was horrible, but the cancer of debt-deflation was eradicated and the system made whole.