Archive - Oct 2015

The takeaway is that to the extent the overnight relief rally in the ringgit and then subsequently in other Asia EM "assets" was catalyzed by a "better" than expected read on the situation in China, the market may be making a mistake because just like Chinese GDP prints, the headline figure on the PBoC's store of FX reserves should be taken with a grain (or perhaps a whole shaker) of salt when it comes to drawing conclusions about the pace of outflows from the world's second most important economy.

In the face of a modest inventory drawdown (reported last night by API), DOE reports a major 3.073 million barrel inventory build (for the 2nd week in a row). As EIA reports, oil stocks remain at their highest in at least 80 years. Rubbing salt into the wounds, Crude production rose 0.84% WoW, the biggest surge in 5 months. WTI Crude's initial reaction is a significant sell-off...

Hedge fund manager exposes the ugly truth about America's energy revolution: it's like the housing bubble but larger!

Saudi Arabia’s competitors from the Gulf cut their prices last month, forcing the largest OPEC producer to follow suit. Although there was little expectation of a shift in strategy, the price cut highlights Saudi Arabia’s determination to continue to pursue market share by keeping production volumes elevated. On top of that, October could be a crucial month for struggling drillers. With drillers undergoing credit redeterminations, October could see a wave of debt restructuring and cuts to credit lines, potentially forcing deeper cuts in the shale patch.

As the following org chart of Glencore shows, the company - at least on the surface - appears to be far "simpler" than Enron was in the days preceding its biggest, for the time, and quite unexpected, bankruptcy.

For the first time since Spetember 2011, the Nasdaq Biotech Index has triggered a "death cross" as its 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day average...

This is what happens when the corporate buyback bonanza bursts. If the CFO loved it at $116 - which is Monsanto's average stock buyback stock over the past 5 years - he'll love it at $84.

Simply put, job growth is not keeping pace with population growth--specifically, the growth of the labor force which is generally defined as the population between the ages of 18 and 64. So what happens to the economy as millions of people never acquire the habits of hard work or lose them due to chronic joblessness?

Amid relatively heavy volume, it appears 9ET was the appropriate time to dump paper gold and silver this morning...

As the WSJ has kindly offered, anyone who wishes to, can ask Ben Bernanke questions about his "courage" to print $3 trillion and make the rich richer. Just make sure to tag your tweet with #FedWSJPro.

The Western hypocrisy and outright panic is accelerating, as Washington is simply bewildered about what to do next in Syria. Meanwhile, the Russian military has, in the space of a week, cleared the way for an Iranian gound invasion on behalf of Assad. Once that's finished, the entire campaign will shift to Iraq, where the US will either need to confront Russia or simply pack up and leave.

It had been quite a downcast start to the third quarter earnings season following very disappointing earnings from Illumina, Adobe and Yum Brand. Then Moments ago agri-giant Monsanto made it four out of four when it reported absolutely terrible results, cut guidance, but at least announced a new $3 billion stock buyback, one that will soak up all the company's net cash flow. The cost of all of this: some 2,600 worker terminations.

What most investors do not realize currently is they could go to "cash" today and in five years will likely be better off. However, since making such a suggestion is strictly "taboo" because one might "miss some upside," it becomes extremely important for measures to be put into place to protect investment capital from the coming downturn.  Of course, since Wall Street does not make fees on investors holding cash, maybe there is another reason they are so adamant that you remain invested all the time.

"We are still in a very cautious environment for emerging-market currencies and unless there is a sharp turnaround in commodity prices or capital flows, I still think there’s going to be pressure on the ringgit and the rupiah."