Archive - Oct 2015

"The dollar fx basis declined further over the past two months. The 5-year dollar fx basis weighted across six DM currencies declined to a new  low for the year and the lowest level since the summer of 2012 during the euro debt crisis. In all, continued monetary policy divergence between the US and the rest of the world as well as retrenchment of EM corporates from dollar funding markets are sustaining an imbalance in funding markets making it likely that the current episode of dollar funding shortage will persist."

Any money manager, whether he is managing separate accounts or a mutual fund, will go through stretches where he looks smarter or dumber than he really is, though his IQ hasn’t actually changed.

Despite the arguably undemocratic, obfuscating nature of our nation’s campaign finance laws and the blatant corporatist agenda mandated by the Supreme Court, let’s attempt to break down the major sources of political spending so far in the 2016 presidential election. You may be surprised to find out who is donating money to your candidate — and how that contribution may affect future policy positions.

"Since 2013, stocks rallied while disinflationary pressures were reinforced by a strong USD, low commodity prices and a decline in global demand. If pre-2013 coordination between the two is taken as a reference, then based on current stock prices breakevens should trade about 1.5% wider. This means the Fed should be hiking because inflation is above target. Alternatively, given the current level of inflation, S&P should be trading at half of its value."

"We believe the US will be in recession before the end of 2016 and then things will be really interesting. How will the public receive news of more QE, NIRP, forward guidance, cash bans and capital control in a time when faith in central bank omnipotence disappears?"

Moves will be made to ban physical cash in the coming months.

"The Americans were startled once again when tragic news break out about the deadly campus shooting in Oregon on Thursday. However, the United States is "the only advanced country on earth that sees these kinds of mass shootings every few months," just like President Barack Obama has painfully acknowledged. How come a country as powerful as the United States has been unable to stop this kind of brutal attacks against innocent civilians? The problem is deeply rooted in the country's political system, where bipartisan politics and interest groups exert huge influence, to the point that security of the American people have to give way to political correctness and corporate interests."

“We got a catered meal of hot dogs and hamburgers as our thanks while others, I’m sure, got big bonuses."

The average retest period following crashes similar to that in August have bottomed an average of 27 days after the crash…that would be Friday .

We are a product of our time and place. We live in a dystopian future that makes Brave New World look positively mundane in comparison. Mass shootings are the natural outcome of a society that mentally shackles its population while pumping it full of psychotropic drugs and violent imagery. It tells us to turn away from bullying while it dumps payloads of high explosives on hospitals and schools. It tells us to empathize with women while objectifying them via pornography.

According to a follow report, it is only a matter of time before far more widespread crackdowns take place within the auto industry where emissions fraud now appears as systemic as that of the global banking sector.

Why don't you join him?

On Monday, a missile from a Saudi-led airstrike struck a Yemeni wedding reception in the village of Al-Wahijah, located near the Red Sea. The explosion resulted in 131 deaths, and the incident is being labeled as one of the deadliest attacks on civilians during the six-month conflict. In total, there have been 7,217 civilian casualties, including 2,355 killed and 4,862 wounded in the six months since the fighting began, according to the United Nations.

The poor jobs report weighed on the dollar, but the greenback recovered as the session progressed.  It is not clear the jobs report was a game changer.  Stay tuned.