Archive - Oct 2015

With the Federal Reserve still hinting at raising interest rates, but trapped by weak economic growth, will the next big move by the Fed be another form of monetary accommodation instead? Or, are the underlying dynamics of the economy and market really strong enough to shake off the recent weakness and continue its bullish ascent?

All you need to know about the "independent", "objective" and "impartial" US media.

1. Dollar doesn’t matter, indicates strong economy relative to the world
2. Dollar matters for oil, but lower oil prices mean stronger consumer
3. Manufacturing slump doesn’t matter, only temporary
4. Manufacturing declines are consumer spending, but only a small part
5. Manufacturing declines are becoming serious, but only from overseas
6. US consumer demand is strong, except everywhere you look to actually find it.
7. ...

Presented without comment...

Today marks a “major change in trend of monumental proportions," according to Martin Armstrong. The government will start to lose control and the lurking monster that is excess debt will rear its head. Today is the start of the "real" sovereign debt crisis - "this concentration of confidence in government marks the peak - from here on out, this will not be a video game - this is real."

The scandal swirling around Germany's largest listed company had its beginnings in an attempt to crack the U.S. market, the missing link in VW's global footprint. But, as Handelsblatt details, what began as expansion ended in deception (piecing together the events that led up to the scandal, based on the facts as they are currently known).

Compare this - BULLARD SAYS HE EXPECTS STRONGER JOBS REPORTS TO COME.

To this - BULLARD SAYS SUB-200K PAYROLL GAINS MAY BECOME THE NORM?

But do not fear, these guys are on top of it!!

Former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney smiled and repeatedly said, "Nice to see you," when asked if he had any concerns about the Saudi Arabian-led bombing campaign in Yemen.

"It is not a problem of liquidity, but of fundamentals"...

For the 6th week in a row, Baker Hughes reports a decline in US oil rig counts. With a huge 29 rig drop - the largest in over 5 months - the total oil rig count is 809, the lowest since May 2002. The reaction is a stick-save buying panic surging crude into the green on the day.

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

Another day, another stock-stop-running VIX "fat-finger" flash-crash to get the S&P into confidence-inspiring green territory...

And so the "most important payrolls number" at least until the October FOMC meeting when the Fed will once again do nothing because suddenly the US is staring recession in the face, is in the history books, and as previewed earlier today, at 142K it was a total disaster, 60K below the consensus and below the lowest estimate. Just as bad, the August print was also revised far lower from 173K to 136K. And while it is less followed, the household survey was an unmitigated disaster, with 236,000 jobs lost in September.

Since the start of the depression in December 2007, the US economy has added 1.5 million waiters and bartenders and lost 1.4 million manufacturing workers.