Archive - Nov 10, 2015

Having risen to its highest level since the middle of the last two recessions, wholesale inventories-to-sales ratio remains at cycle highs at 1.31x. With wholesale sales and inventories both rising 0.5% (both more than expected), however, the absolute difference between sales and inventories has never been higher, leaving either major inventory liquidation ahead (or a miracle in sales). Wholesale inventories have now risen 4.7% YoY, as Sales have fallen 3.9% YoY. Finally, Auto inventories-to-sales ratio dropped very modestly (thanks to the surge in sales), but remains deep in 2008/9 crisis territory.

Behold! More shark jumping as BofA, Citi blame warm weather for weak October retail sales: "We believe abnormal weather patterns may have biased retail ex-auto sales lower in October."

While some have called The Trans-Pacific Partnership, "the most brazen corporate power grab in American history," President Obama tells Americans - in an Op-Ed released today - that "it’s the right thing to do for our economy, for working Americans and for our middle class" Despite indepedent analysis that appears to confirm  the creeping corporate coup d’état along with the final evisceration of national sovereignty, President Obama explains - in simple words - ObamaTrade is "a trade deal that helps working families get ahead," due, inhis opinion,  to the "toughest global labor laws" which will allow American workers to compete on a so-called "level playing field."

In what's being described as a "palpably tense" tense auction, a "Chinese Beverly Hillbilly" dubbed "The Eccentric Mr. Liu" paid the second highest price at auction in history for a Modigliani. 

Late last week, a consortium of financial regulators in the United States, including the Federal Reserve and the FDIC, issued an astonishing condemnation of the US banking system, highlighting “continuing gaps between industry practices and the expectations for safe and sound banking.” They identified a huge jump in risky loans due to overexposure to weakening oil and gas industries. Make no mistake; this is not chump change. The total exceeds $3.9 trillion worth of risky loans that US banks made with your money. Given that even the Fed is concerned about this, alarm bells should be ringing.

"Apple has lowered its component orders by as much as 10% according to our teams in Asia. The cuts seem to be driven by weak demand for the new iPhone 6s, as overall builds are now estimated to be below 80mn units for the December quarter and between 55-60mn units for the March quarter."

The global export of deflation continues as import prices to the US dropped 0.5% MoM in October (notably more than expected) and recent history was revised markedly lower with the 7th miss in 2015. Year-over-year, prices also fell more than expected - down 10.5% vs -9.4% exp. - the biggest miss since April and hovering near the weakest in the cycle. This is the 15th month in a row of year-over-year declines in import prices. But most critically, Ex-petroleum, this is the biggest drop in import prices since 2009.

As the USDollar surges ahead this morning - crushing the hopes and hupes of corporate earnings in America - so precious metals are being battered once again. Silver is now down for the 9th consecutive day - the longest streak in 8 months; and Gold is down again (after a brief reprieve yesterday) to its lowest levels in 3 months.

On the heels of Washington's move to send a guided missile destroyer to Subi Reef, Beijing has now moved its fighter jets closer to the Spratlys in what certainly looks like an effort to "deter" any further "meddling" by the US and its regional allies. 

It appears the stop sbelow yesterday's lows (following The ECB's jawboning of "big cuts" in rates) have been run, sparking a 40 pip waterfall to a 1.06 handle in EURUSD (and there are more ECB speakers to come). These are 7-month lows in EURUSD and are pressing The USD Index to break April's highs.

The Valeant drama continues, and one day after Bill Ackman hosted another desperate call to convince LPs in his fund not to submit redemption requests following a $2+ billion loss on his VRX investment (and maybe buy a little here and there), here comes Valeant itself which in a few moments will provide a "business update for investors on a conference call to be held Tuesday, November 10, 2015 at 8:00 a.m. ET."

"Using a dataset on developed market business cycles, we calculate that the unconditional odds that a six-year-old expansion will avoid recession for another four years—and mature into a 10-year-old expansion—are about 60%."

The cobasis briefly peaked around 11% (from around 0.5% previously).

• Bonds Rise as China Drags Down Metals, Selloff in Stocks Resumes (BBG)
• European Stock Rally Runs Out of Steam Amid China Growth Concern (BBG)
• Obama's immigration action blocked again; Supreme Court only option left (Reuters)
• Ukraine: Cyberwar’s Hottest Front (WSJ)
• With $170.4 Million Sale at Auction, Modigliani Work Joins Rarefied Nine-Figure Club (NYT)
• IEA Sees OPEC Market Share Growth in 2020 as Rivals Stagnate (BBG)

The ongoing failure of China to achieve any stabilization in its economy, after already cutting interest rates six times in the past year, and the prospect of a U.S. interest rate hike in December, had made markets increasingly jittery and worried which is not only why the S&P 500 Index had its biggest drop in a month, but thanks to the soaring dollar emerging market stocks are falling for a fourth day - led by China - bringing their decline in that period to almost 4 percent, and the global stock index down for a 5th consecutive day.