Archive - Nov 20, 2015

Importantly, while the "bias" of the market is to the upside, primarily due to the psychological momentum that "stocks are the only game in town," the mounting risks are clearly evident. From economic to earnings-related weakness, the "bullish underpinnings" are slowly being chipped away.

"Refugee Roulette..."

The sums in play are so staggering (an estimated $11 trillion in emerging market debts denominated in other currencies) that even the Fed won't be able to stop the meltdown.

As Puerto Rico stares down a $355 million bond payment due in less than two weeks, analysts warn that without federal intervention, the commonwealth could face growing social unrest and a prolonged depression.

You can manipulate earnings, but The S&P 500 is as expensive now on a cash-flow basis as it was at the peak of the dot-com bubble...

"Can the government maintain this strategy of flooding the oil market? In our view, it is unlikely that Saudi leaders would want to exacerbate its ongoing reserve drain by pushing prices below $40/bbl. After all, pressure will quickly build on the riyal’s 30 year peg to the USD if Brent crude oil prices keep falling."

After a strong bounce this week, Chipotle is tumbling back to June 2014 lows after The CDC issues a report that states:

*CDC: 45 PEOPLE INFECTED WITH OUTBREAK STRAIN IN 6 STATES
*CDC:EVIDENCE SUGGESTS COMMON MEAL ITEM/INGREDIENT LIKELY SOURCE

Janet Yellen’s astonishing letter to the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, is a sign that the central bank is panicking over the fact that Congress is unhappy with the job it has been doing.

What happens if Shkreli's plan is indeed to rerun the "Volkswagen" scenario and unleash an epic short squeeze that sends the price of the company into the stratosphere, unlinked from any fundamentals, but merely soaring ever higher as desperate shorts pay any price just to get out.

• US dollar sell-off: Nov’15 Global FMS shows “long dollar” most crowded trade
• EM rally: China deval complicates rally but humiliated EM ripe for bounce as Fed hike expectations peak
• Positioning less "bearish": risk rally is "narrow" and vulnerable to quick profit-taking in event-rich December: deteriorating RSP/SPY ratio

Between contract roll liquidity and a renewed tumble in the US Oil Rig Count, WTI Crude (Jan 16) has surged above $42.50 (Dec 15 to $41). After last week's very modest rise, the streak of rig count declines continues (11th week of last 12) with a 10 rig drop to 564 - the lowest since June 2010.

Instead of Listening to Idiots Talking Their Book ... Let's Fact-Check the Myths