Archive - Nov 2, 2015

"We’re going to come down to about twice a quarter or a little more than that. That’s the right amount to make it regular but not a constant poke in the eye."

The Fed is weighing the negative consequences of a strong dollar on corporate profits vs. unleashing inflation on the electorate, pressuring long term interest rates. We will soon see which negative scenario they favor and why.

There are a multitude of fuses affixed to dozens of powderkegs and little kids with matches are on the loose.

President Obama has just unleashed a new executive order to remove admission of a criminal history from job applications, or in The White House's words, to reduce potential discrimination against former convicts in the hiring process for federal government employees. As NBC News reports, this is a further step towards what many criminal justice reformers call "ban the box" – the effort to eliminate requirements that job applicants check a box on their applications if they have a criminal record - and continues Obama’s emphasis on assisting criminals who want to re-enter society as part of his continuing agenda items from his "My Brother’s Keeper Task Force."

Another month-start massive short-squeeze...

"It is great. You took the words right out of my mouth. There are a lot of things that I am not allowed to write. Therefore I’m even more pleased with courageous, independent people."

Financial engineering scams like Tyco and Valeant would never happen in an honest free market. Short sellers would shut them down long before they reach egregious levels of over-valuation; and the cost of honest downside market insurance (i.e. S&P 500 puts) and market driven carry cost would dramatically reduce the profitability of speculation and the amount of punters and capital in the casino. In today’s broken markets and corrupt regime of central bank driven crony capitalism, however, bubbles inflate in individual securities, as well as in broad sectors and the market as a whole, until they reach egregious, self-correcting extremes. Then they violently implode, creating immense waves of collateral damage in the process. Perhaps then the American people will learn that Yellen & Co have actually been in the un-wealth effects business for way too long.

Anyone who thinks that somehow this will not impact the rest of the globe is out of his or her mind.

While there are certainly reasons to be "hopeful" that stocks will continue to rise into the future, "hope" has rarely been a fruitful investment strategy longer term. Therefore, let's analyze each of the optimist's arguments from both perspectives to eliminate "confirmation bias." 

Sometimes societies just go batshit crazy.

Presented with no comment.

Just a few days after we got a very disappointing Q3 GDP print of only 1.5% annualized growth, of which healthcare spending accounted for over a third, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast, which has traditionally been the most accurate indicator of real-time GDP swings, was just slashed by nearly a quarter from the 2.5% as originally reported on October 30, to just 1.9%.

There is ample evidence suggesting that Millennials simply do not want the same things as their Taco Tuesday baby boomer parents. And many simply don’t want the McMansion aspiration since many are going to have small families. This is an interesting shift. Boomers are trying to off load larger crap shacks to an audience that is more interested in smaller more centrally accessible properties.