Archive - Nov 6, 2015

If there was any confusion where all those soaring new car sales are coming from, we now have the definitive answer: moments ago the latest consumer credit data for September was released, and surging by $28.9 billion - a 4.9% jump Y/Y - not only did this smash expectations of a "modest" $18 billion rise, this was the biggest monthly increase ever!

The self-inflicted wounds of Hillary Rodham Clinton just keep manifesting themselves. She has two serious issues that have arisen in the past week; one is political and the other is legal. Both have deception at their root.

One tech company realized today just how big the second "private" tech bubble, one we profiled first in January of 2014, truly is. That company is Jack Dorsey's Square, which earlier today filed a prospectus in which it said that the "initial public offering price per share of Class A common stock will be between $11.00 and $13.00." Assuming a mid-point price of $12 and applying the 322.9 million shares outstanding after the offering, it means a valuation of $3.9 billion.  The problem is that in its last private fundraising round, Square was valued at about $6 billion according to ReCode.

2015 has been an 'odd' year. Typically this time of year sees demand picking up amid holiday inventory stacking and measures of global trade such as The Baltic Dry Index rise from mid-summer to Thanksgiving. This year, it has not. In fact, it has plummeted as the world's economic engines slow and reality under the covers of global stock markets suggests a massive deflationary wave (following a massive mal-investment boom). At a level of 631, this is the lowest cost for Baltic Dry Freight Index for this time of year in history.. and within a small drop of an all-time historical low.

Presented with no comment, not even one.

If you think you're having a bad day (amid the post-payrolls turmoil), consider "America's richest woman" Christy Walton - the widow of Wal-Mart's John Walton. According to newly-released documents, her $32 billion wealth is actually around $5bn (as the assumption that John passed on the bulk of his wealth to his wife was wrong) plunging from 18th richest person in the world to just 280th. However, today biggest winner is her son, Lukas Walton who vaults to 103rd richest in the world as his fortune is revealed at $11 billion. Now those are first-world problems...

“Consider for example a tax cut for households and businesses that is explicitly coupled with incremental Bank of Japan purchases of government debt – so that the tax cut is in effect financed by money creation”

- Ben Bernanke, Some Thoughts on Monetary Policy in Japan, 2003

Having surged to the lead (according to some polls) in the GOP presidential nominee race, Ben Carson may have a problem. As Politico reports, Carson's campaign on Friday admitted that a central point in his inspirational personal story (his application and acceptance into the U.S. Military Academy at West Point) was fabricated. This admission comes as serious questions about other points of fact in Carson’s personal narrative are questioned, including the seminal episode in which he claimed to have attempted to stab a close friend.

In what amounts to a contravention of the recently inked nuclear deal, Iran has reportedly purchased passenger jets from the UK and is now using them to transport The Quds Force to the front lines in Syria. 

For the 10th consecutive week, the US oil rig count declined. Dropping 6 to 572 rigs, this is the lowest since June 2010. WTI Crude prices were unmoved by the drop having tumbled earlier after the 'great' payrolls data.

As of the week ended October 28, Primary Dealer corporate holdings tumbled across both IG and HY, plunging to the lowest level in years in what can only be called a rapid liquidation of duration risk.

"I think it will be reasonable to suspend all Russian flights to Egypt until we determine the real reasons of what happened."

"When are we going home?"

Sick from being overweight, tired of bombing brown people to steal their oil, and want something you can do about it, today, that will also improve your personal financial situation?

"The truth is, the debt ceiling doesn’t actually limit government spending. It’s a farce. Every time government debt gets close to the debt ceiling, Congress just raises it.”