Archive - Nov 2015

Scott Sumner said he had a “modest” proposal: there should be a highly liquid futures market in Nominal Gross Domestic Product. Let's look at that.

"At the moment we have received additional information confirming that that oil from the deposits controlled by Islamic State militants enters Turkish territory on industrial scale."

For all intents and purposes, the National Security Agency has supposedly ceased its bulk collection of metadata from Americans’ phone calls, but read the fine print: nothing is going to change.

While Americans are used to tears (and jeers) in The Capitol as politicians go about their 'business', none of that compares to the behavior of lawmakers in Kosovo this morning.

Terrorism is increasing worldwide because of US and western interventionism. That does not mean that if we suddenly followed a policy of non-interventionism the world would become a peaceful utopia. But does anyone really believe that continuing to do what increases terrorism will lead to a decrease in terrorism?

Following the earlier onslaught of weak (and strong) economic data, China has revealed its official and Caixin-based PMI surveys for Manufacturing and Services. Sure enough, while China's official manufacturing data missed (to Aug 2012 lows), Ciaxin's survey beat, jumping to June 2015 highs. even as China's official Services PMI beat expectations, bouncing off 15-month lows. The question now is - given The IMF's inclusion of the Yuan in the SDR basket - will The PBOC devalue (as offshore Yuan implies) to juice a collapsing manufacturing sector...  or is China's manufacturing now improving if one looks at the "other" PMI?

From South Korean exports (beat) to Aussie PMI (multi-year highs) and from China Services PMI (2012 lows) to Japan CapEx (multi-year highs), AsiaPac was awash with the exact kind of baffle 'em with bullshit data that provides just enough "see everything is awesome after all" to balance the "umm, but what about..." less glass half full perspective. For your viewing pleasure - 5 WTF charts for AsiaPac economies...

"... As the tide of leverage goes out, the full extent of irresponsible lending becomes apparent. The previously virtuous cycle between risk spreads and fundamentals goes into reverse, with lower prices, defaults, and downgrades forcing leveraged investors to sell, leading to even lower prices."

It’s an unfortunate truth that, when people are worried about the future, they often put their faith in politicians to somehow make everything better. The hard truth, however, is that if we have a savior, he is the man in the mirror. If we are to be saved, we alone must do the research, make the plans, vote with our feet, and establish our own liberty.

"I am scared stiff of what is happening in this country. What will the government do about this?"

"Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin."

It is Pedro's "courage to write" what Bernanke conveniently forgot to add in his memoir, that makes this review so much more memorable than the generic sycophantic tripe written by his "access journalism" peers.

What should the rational investor do in an environment of ongoing financial repression? If you wanted to trigger a bank run, this is certainly how you might go about it.

Three weeks ago, we noted with some alarm that the number of women age 18 to 34 living with their parents is now the highest since record keeping began more than seven decades ago. Now, according to the latest data from the Commerce Department (which someone clearly forgot to double seasonally adjust), we discover that nearly a fifth of males aged 25-34 live in their parent's basement while the aggregate number for the 18 to 34 bracket inclusive of both women and men rose to 31.5% as of March.