Archive - Nov 2015

Day after day, the 'stability' in the stock "markets" (specifically in AsiaPac) is posited as 'proof' that China is 'fixed', the worst is over in EMs, The Fed can raise rates, and massive monetray policy manipulation of market signals had no mal-investment consequences. Well all of that utter crap just got obliterated as China's right-hand-man in the credit-fueled commodity boom bust - Australia - just saw its business capital expenditure collapse 20% YoY - the biggest drop ever, accelerating the crash in business spending to 11 quarters. As Goldman warns, this exposes significant downside risk to any forecast for GDP recovery in 2016.

The landscape of the cannabis industry is quickly changing. More jurisdictions are turning to legalization of medical and recreational cannabis, and the growth story behind the industry is just beginning for investors.

The question now comes down to how Russia will respond to what happened, but perhaps even more important for observers to ponder is why the US is unofficially distancing itself from its ally’s aggression. Despite both NATO and Obama giving full backing to Turkey’s fateful decision, Reuters has quoted an anonymous American military official that purposely leaked that the Russian plane was downed while over Syrian airspace, basing the assessment on heat signature detection. This raises questions about why the US is playing both sides of the fence – on one hand, publicly supporting Turkey, while on the other, strategically releasing information that conflicts with Turkey’s official depiction of events.

Despite distressed-debt funds suffering their worst losses since 2008, mainstream apologists continue to largely ignore the carnage in the credit market (even though veteran bond managers have urged "it's not just energy, it's everything.") With the number of loan deals pricing below 80 (distressed) at cycle peaks, and "a less diverse group of investors holding a lot more bonds," price swings continue to be wild but as DB's Melentyev warns, initially "all of this looks random when there is no underlying news to support the big moves. But eventually a narrative emerges -- maybe we have turned the corner on the credit cycle."

It's almost game over for Puerto Rico. The commonwealth is racing to restructure some $72 billion in debt and next week, Padilla will need to decide between a partial default on a $354 million bond payment and ensuring that the government can continue to provide basic services. 

Has there ever been a major holiday more focused on materialism than the modern American Christmas? This year, Americans are planning to spend an average of 830 dollars on Christmas gifts, which represents a jump of 110 dollars over the average of 720 dollars last year. But have our incomes gone up accordingly? Of course not.

When it comes to the current round of currency war between Europe and the US, Europe is winning and the US is losing, and  nowhere is this more obvious than the revenues of the largest US corporations.

Everyone has heard the phrase "this is the most important jobs report ever", and virtually every time this has been an exaggeration. However according to an analysis conducted by BofA's Vadim Iaralov, the nonfarm payrolls report on December 4 may just really be the most important jobs number. Ever.

A society that is given the option to protect itself is not a fearful society, it is a prudent one. The victims of Paris were never allowed the option to protect their lives, nor were they fortunate to have armed defenders present or trained combatants to stop the attack before it reached them. People need the opportunity to secure their own safety since, as the past twelve years has shown, the State will fail them.

Gobble Gobble Garbage...

The Western media will tell you that Gazprom cannot afford to cut Turkey off in retailiation for Ankara's attack on a Russian warplane. While that may be true, it's important to remember that Turkey's fallback option when it comes to replacing lost supply is Iran and under the circumstances, it seems exceptionally unlikely that Tehran would be willing to make things easier on Erdogan.

Retailers are cutting back their pre-Christmas orders in anticipation of disappointing holiday sales and due to already bulging inventories.

According to Bank of America there sill be no recession until 2027, if ever, and the S&P will hit 3500 by 2025. Just one thing we would like to know: does Bank of America anticipate another bailout of Bank of America during this upcoming golden age a la 2008, or is that also impossible to predict.