Archive - Nov 2015

When it comes to NATO and the West you can always find a contradiction or two (or five) when it comes to foreign policy rhetoric which is why we weren’t at all surprised (although we were amused) with what we found when we decided to take a look back at what Erdogan said in 2012 after Assad’s air force shot down a Turkish F-4 phantom jet when it crossed into Syrian airspace.

A modest production cut this morning may - or may not - be 'correlated' with the fact that once again the oil rig count declined 9 to 555 rigs, tracking oil's slide. This is the 12th weekly drop in the last 13 weeks to the lowest since June 2010.

"The future of the company seems very black," notes on trader as the bonds and stocks of Spanish renewbles form Abengoa lives up to its name and files for creditor protection, just as we warned was likely. With the stock crashing 70% to 28c and 4-month bonds trading at just 22c on the dollar, market participants face an almost total loss.. but, as we detailed previously, it is the American taxpayer - who thanks to Ex-Im Bank loans to keep this zombie alive - face losses of $230 million as Spain's Solyndra exposes another symptom of the Oligrachic ignorance of where the money comes from.

“From the mass psychology perspective, Gold is very close to putting in a bottom.  Sentiment investors, contrarian investors and investors who are familiar with the concept of mass psychology should consider taking a closer look at the precious metal’s sector now”.

Here is a sight that will never be seen in the US: the CEO of the country's largest investment bank arrested and perp walked after accusation we was part of the nation's largest corruption scandal.

Just when you thought it was safe to hike rates, The Atlanta Fed takes an ax to its Q4 GDP forecast, smashing it to cycle lows following this morning's unexpected weakness in consumer spending.

With Americans facing a day of travel and giving thanks tomorrow, President Obama is set to make a statement we presume urging everyone to get out and spend... but be more alert to bad guys...

The 2 Year auction was strong, the 5 Year auction yesterday was mixed, but one word can best describe demand for today's issuance for "curve belly" 7 Year paper: blistering.

The S&P 500 is up 0.44% in the last three days, a solid return for the buy-and-hold'ers thinking about long-term appreciation. However, under the covers of that move is, just as we predicted, a massive and accelerating short-squeeze is underway, dragging the "Most Shorted" stocks up 4.65% since Friday's open as investors bet increasingly on central-bank-inspired expectations that hedge fund blow ups will force domino-like, sequential short squeezes.

America: Land of the free and future home of censorship? A new study by Pew Research shows that American Millennials are far more likely to support the government banning offensive speech about minority groups than other generations.

"There were no warnings. Not via the radio, not visually. There was no contact whatsoever. That's why we were keeping our combat course as usual. You have to understand what the cruising speed of a bomber is compared to an F-16. If they wanted to warn us, they could have shown themselves by heading on a parallel course. But there was nothing. And the rocket hit our tail completely unexpectedly. We didn't even see it in time to take evasive maneuvres."

The US is on its own and monetary expansion seems the only Holy Grail left...

"This (bus bombing) is an evolution in the behavior of the terrorists, this time they attacked a symbol of the state and in the heart of the capital."

Confirming API's data overnight, DOE reports a build in overall crude inventory (961k barrels - less than API) foro the 9th week in a row but more worryingly a significant build in Cushing inventories (+1.74mm barrels) for the 3rd week in a row. This 'bearish' shift is offset for now by the biggest drop in overall crude production in 7 weeks.

As the chart below shows, new home construction has plateaued and has been in decline ever since February of 2015 when it posted its post-recession peak of 545K. But what is more troubling is that the median price of new homes tumbled from 307,800 in September, or the highest in the series history to just $281,500, the lowest in 13 months!