Archive - Nov 2015

What do you do when you're a government statistician and the economic data doesn't say what you want it to say? Why you "adjust" it of course.

In a libertarian world, people with these differing opinions and values can live side by side in reasonable harmony, each side following the famous Voltairian advice to disapprove of what someone says (or does), but defend to the death his right to say (or do) it. But this harmony breaks down when one group or the other seeks to put the heavy finger of government on their side of the scales.

Obamaworld is gone. We live again in an us-versus-them country in an us-versus-them world. And we shall likely never know another.

Importantly, while the "bias" of the market is to the upside, primarily due to the psychological momentum that "stocks are the only game in town," the mounting risks are clearly evident. From economic to earnings-related weakness, the "bullish underpinnings" are slowly being chipped away.

"Refugee Roulette..."

The sums in play are so staggering (an estimated $11 trillion in emerging market debts denominated in other currencies) that even the Fed won't be able to stop the meltdown.

As Puerto Rico stares down a $355 million bond payment due in less than two weeks, analysts warn that without federal intervention, the commonwealth could face growing social unrest and a prolonged depression.

You can manipulate earnings, but The S&P 500 is as expensive now on a cash-flow basis as it was at the peak of the dot-com bubble...

"Can the government maintain this strategy of flooding the oil market? In our view, it is unlikely that Saudi leaders would want to exacerbate its ongoing reserve drain by pushing prices below $40/bbl. After all, pressure will quickly build on the riyal’s 30 year peg to the USD if Brent crude oil prices keep falling."

After a strong bounce this week, Chipotle is tumbling back to June 2014 lows after The CDC issues a report that states:

*CDC: 45 PEOPLE INFECTED WITH OUTBREAK STRAIN IN 6 STATES
*CDC:EVIDENCE SUGGESTS COMMON MEAL ITEM/INGREDIENT LIKELY SOURCE

Janet Yellen’s astonishing letter to the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, is a sign that the central bank is panicking over the fact that Congress is unhappy with the job it has been doing.