Archive - Nov 2015

"Adults over 30 are less happy than any of their predecessors," concludes a study published last week which examined happiness data from more than 50,000 adults, gleaned from the General Social Survey which has collected information about American adults since 1972. Perhaps most notable is that, for the first time ever, adults ages 18 to 29 were happier than adults over 30.

"It’s going to take years. Air power is extremely important. It can do a lot but it can't do everything. Ultimately it cannot occupy territory and very importantly it cannot govern territory." 

Rooftop Solar Poses a Threat to the Utilities’ Century-Old Business Model of Centralized Power … So They’re Trying to Make Solar Much More Expensive

While the market may still rally to new highs, the late August free fall in stock prices and spike in volatility served as a wake-up call for investors. In the past ten weeks, major equity indices have recovered virtually all those losses, giving investors an unusual second opportunity to position their portfolio for an important inflection point in monetary policy as the Fed likely starts raising interest rates. Simply put, investors who were not properly positioned and frustrated by their performance in the late August swoon are being given a do-over.

Goldman Sachs -> Treasury -> PIMCO -> The Fed

As Strategas notes "any way we look at it, market breadth remains narrow," but, as Dana Lyon's details, everyone's favorite high-beta squeeze index - Nasdaq - is perhaps the most troubling. Since the initial spike off the September lows, rally participation among all stocks has been lackluster; the Nasdaq provides us with more evidence of this... In fact, over the past month, the cumulative number of daily advancing stocks minus declining stocks on the Nasdaq is actually negative.

Prudent companies internationally are allocating capital to gold and silver bullion as a way to diversify their assets and as a form of financial insurance to protect against bank bail-ins, capital controls, currency debasement and other risks posed by another financial crisis.

Having risen to its highest level since the middle of the last two recessions, wholesale inventories-to-sales ratio remains at cycle highs at 1.31x. With wholesale sales and inventories both rising 0.5% (both more than expected), however, the absolute difference between sales and inventories has never been higher, leaving either major inventory liquidation ahead (or a miracle in sales). Wholesale inventories have now risen 4.7% YoY, as Sales have fallen 3.9% YoY. Finally, Auto inventories-to-sales ratio dropped very modestly (thanks to the surge in sales), but remains deep in 2008/9 crisis territory.

Behold! More shark jumping as BofA, Citi blame warm weather for weak October retail sales: "We believe abnormal weather patterns may have biased retail ex-auto sales lower in October."

While some have called The Trans-Pacific Partnership, "the most brazen corporate power grab in American history," President Obama tells Americans - in an Op-Ed released today - that "it’s the right thing to do for our economy, for working Americans and for our middle class" Despite indepedent analysis that appears to confirm  the creeping corporate coup d’état along with the final evisceration of national sovereignty, President Obama explains - in simple words - ObamaTrade is "a trade deal that helps working families get ahead," due, inhis opinion,  to the "toughest global labor laws" which will allow American workers to compete on a so-called "level playing field."

In what's being described as a "palpably tense" tense auction, a "Chinese Beverly Hillbilly" dubbed "The Eccentric Mr. Liu" paid the second highest price at auction in history for a Modigliani. 

Late last week, a consortium of financial regulators in the United States, including the Federal Reserve and the FDIC, issued an astonishing condemnation of the US banking system, highlighting “continuing gaps between industry practices and the expectations for safe and sound banking.” They identified a huge jump in risky loans due to overexposure to weakening oil and gas industries. Make no mistake; this is not chump change. The total exceeds $3.9 trillion worth of risky loans that US banks made with your money. Given that even the Fed is concerned about this, alarm bells should be ringing.

"Apple has lowered its component orders by as much as 10% according to our teams in Asia. The cuts seem to be driven by weak demand for the new iPhone 6s, as overall builds are now estimated to be below 80mn units for the December quarter and between 55-60mn units for the March quarter."

The global export of deflation continues as import prices to the US dropped 0.5% MoM in October (notably more than expected) and recent history was revised markedly lower with the 7th miss in 2015. Year-over-year, prices also fell more than expected - down 10.5% vs -9.4% exp. - the biggest miss since April and hovering near the weakest in the cycle. This is the 15th month in a row of year-over-year declines in import prices. But most critically, Ex-petroleum, this is the biggest drop in import prices since 2009.