Archive - Dec 10, 2015

"The move would arguably represent the biggest transfer of sovereignty since the creation of the single currency."

Americans have a broad and heavy bias away from unpleasant data. We are ready to be manipulated by vested interests in finance, economics, and climate change, whose interests might be better served by our believing optimistic stuff "that just ain’t so." We are dealing today with important issues, one so important that it may affect the long-term viability of our global society and perhaps our species. It may well be necessary to our survival that we become more realistic, more willing to process the unpleasant, and, above all, less easily manipulated through our need for good news.

USDCNY broke above 6.4500 for the first time since the August devaluation, extending its post-IMF plunge to 6 days. This is the largest and longest streak of weakness since March 2014 as China seems to have taken the SDR-inclusion as blessing to devalue its currency drip by drip. Default risk is once again stomping higher as CDS surge from 94bps to 112bps (2-month highs). The biggest news in China tonight is the disappearance of Fosun International's Chairman, China's 17th richest man (and the collapse in the company's bonds, since stocks are suspended).

One lesson from military history is that once mobilization for war begins, it takes on a momentum of its own and is uncontrollable. This might be what is occuring unrecognized before our eyes.

"Corporate balance sheet deterioration may well be a theme in 2016, raising market concerns, in our view. A mirror image of that is the rise in bank non- performing loans. Our contacts among the banks seem increasingly concerned about the NPL issue in 2016."

"Arm yourselves...Be ready when the wolf comes to the door, because it's on its way..." Trying to take away Americans' guns "will cause a revaolution."

More Americans - republicans and democrats - support Trump's idea of banning the entry of Muslims into America than oppose it, and now that it is 'polling' as a populist idea, we await Hillary Clinton to jump on the bandwagon.

Wait, WHAT?! ...

Just weeks after the completion (and failure) of one supposed 'containment' wall (and as the construction of the "ice wall" begins), TEPCO, the operator of the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant, has admitted that the levels of radioactivity in underground tunnels has risen sharply (4000x last year's levels). As NHKWorld reports, TEPCO officials have stated that they plan to investigate what caused the spike in radiation... yes, that would seem like a good idea.

"What’s it like playing chess with Obama?" asks a top aid of Russian president Vladimir Putin. Putin replies, "It's like playing chess with a pigeon. First it knocks over all the pieces, then it shits on the board, and finally it struts around like it won."

As 2015 draws to a close, Goldman identifies 15 straddle-buying opportunities on stocks with liquid options, reporting in December. Our studies analyzing historical earnings events show at-the-money straddles are systematically undervalued ahead of the event. Buying straddles ahead of earnings has returned 10% through early December vs. the long term average of 2%.

Though none of these men are perfect or trustworthy with ultimate power, President Obama and his team make Donald Trump and Rand Paul look like founding fathers.

From the time a Russian three star general strolled into the US embassy in Baghdad and informed the staff that airstrikes “start in one hour,” the rapidity with which Putin’s forces have established a base, sent in equipment, and launched a coordinated campaign with the IRGC and Hezbollah has been nothing short of astonishing.

The chart below crystalizes why the Fed is stranded in a monetary no man’s land. By the time of next week’s meeting the federal funds rate will have been pinned at about 10 bps, or effectively zero, for 84 straight months. After one pretension, delusion, head fake and forecasting error after another, the denizens of the Eccles Building have painted themselves into the most dangerous monetary corner in history. They have left themselves no alternative except to provoke a riot in the casino - the very outcome that has filled them with fear and dread all these years.

“For dry bulk, China has gone completely belly up,” said Erik Nikolai Stavseth, an analyst at Arctic Securities ASA in Oslo, talking about ships that haul everything from coal to iron ore to grain. “Present Chinese demand is insufficient to service dry-bulk production, which is driving down rates and subsequently asset values as they follow each other.”