Archive - Dec 1, 2015

If rising prices are good for the economy, how come everyone was so unhappy in Germany's Weimar Republic in 1923, or in Zimbabwe fifteen years ago? Surely, as inflation accelerates the happiness level should rise...

Warren Buffett - billionaire investor, opposer of Citizens United but major donor to super-PACs, previous fan of Bernie Sanders, and vehement supporter of the 'fairness doctrine' on taxes for everyone but himself - will be joining 'campaigner for everyday Americans' Hillary Clinton as she stumps in Omaha this month. We are sure average joes and janes across America will feel relieved that two such 'feet on the ground, down to earth' people are representing their needs and hearing their fears.

While a good portion of us here in the states spent last week in a collective food coma, Australian zoologist, Adam Britton, launched a crowdfunding campaign to continue research on one of Paul Hogan’s lesser-known adversaries – the pygmy crocodile. 

"... Gladio, amongst others, is just a perfect example of how governments used oppression against their own citizens to shape the mindset of the public to unify them towards a common goal and objective, which in our case is: counter-terrorism. The problem, however, is that by giving this support, the public indirectly relinquishes many freedoms and liberties."

D'uh!

When oil prices were spiking in 2008 and some commentators were predicting prices of $200 a barrel, many pundits and politicians turned to blame speculators and hedge funds for pushing prices upwards. That period of high prices passed and speculators avoided any tough new regulations in part due to mix empirical evidence surrounding the causes of price volatility. Now though, the opposite case is being made; hedge funds shorting oil may be behind recent volatility and the current low price of oil.

"A tense moment occurred when the 133-meter ship, the Yauda, arrived at the Dardanelles from the Aegean Sea at around 10 a.m. on Nov. 30. and encountered a Turkish submarine across the shores of Canakkale's Eceabat."

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel announced the resignation of Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy, amid growing furor over the administration’s handling of the shooting death of a black teenager by a white officer last year. “Now is the time for fresh ideas and new leadership” the mayor said.

Moments ago the GDPNow website announced that the latest model forecast for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 has now tumbled to a paltry 1.4 percent on December 1, down from 1.8 percent on November 25. "The decline occurred this morning after the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute of Supply Management and the construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau."

Long term risk has increased quite a bit, no matter which data points one happens to consider. Whether one looks at valuations, market internals, leverage or positioning, there are now more warning signs than ever. With the support provided by strong money supply growth declining as well, it becomes ever more likely that these potential dangers will actually materialize. It is an accident waiting to happen.

Smart money continues to accumulate gold and silver coins. Demand for American Eagle silver coins has also been strong, with year-to-date sales already reaching an annual record at 44.67 million ounces, breaking the full-year record of 44 million ounces in 2014

So what happens when an insatiable state-mandated cartel attaches itself to households with declining real incomes?

With December rate-hike odds sliding the most since the last FOMC meeting (down from 75% to 70%), following abysmal data this morning, it appears investors are reaching for the safety of Treasuries as either a fed policy error is about to be unleashed and/or growth is signficantly weaker than all the talking heads proclaim. With traders the most net short in years, this rapid plunge in yields could quickly accelerate.

“These special operators will over time be able to conduct raids, free hostages, gather intelligence, and capture ISIL leaders."

What rate hike? Following a relentless barrage of recessionary industrial and manufacturing data, moments ago the Business Roundtable released its latest, fourth quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, and it is an absolute disaster.