Archive - Dec 21, 2015

I would imagine any ancient Roman wise enough to make this same prediction back before the Empire collapsed as the great city fell from a population of one million down to 12,000, would have sounded like a real KOOK.

While many still cling to the belief that U.S. shale and tight oil plays are commercial even at current low oil prices but data on the Permian basin and Bakken plays simply does not support this hope. In fact, less than 2 percent of Permian basin tight oil wells are commercial at $30 per barrel oil prices.

Today we get another confirmation just how bad Apple end-demand has become, with news out of India that Apple has cut prices of its latest iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus by up to 16% just two months after their launch in India to boost flagging sales in what is historically its most crucial quarter as demand for the flagship devices nosedived from a Diwali high.

It would appear that The Chicago Fed's own National Activity Index (CFNAI) is not part of the The Fed's "data" that it is so "dependent" on. CFNAI has been in contraction (sub-zero) for 9 of the 11 months of 2015 and today's November print, missing expectations once again, tumbled to its lowest since May. Would seem like Fed rate hike timing is questionable at best?

As you may recall, it hasn’t been a good year for Sepp Blatter despite being the recipient of some helicopter money back in July. On Monday, things got immeasurably worse for the 79-year-old, whose 17 year reign at the top of FIFA was suspended in October after Swiss prosecutors opened an investigation into an illicit payment made to European soccer boss Michel Platini in 2011.

"There no obvious solution. This is why we think that a second election around March 2016 is as likely as any of the alternatives. [In fact,] an early election in the short or medium term seems the most likely outcome."

• Splintered Spanish vote points to fraught coalition talks (Reuters)
• Brent Oil Falls to 11-Year Low in London as Global Glut Persists (BBG)
• Oil prices hit lowest since 2004 as supply balloons (Reuters)
• U.S. Probes Theranos Complaints (WSJ)
• Driver plows onto Las Vegas Strip sidewalk 'like bowling ball', one dead (Reuters)
• Yellen, Bull Markets and Extinction in a Seven-Year Stock Rally (BBG)

In a weekend of very little macro newsflow facilitated by the release of the latest Star Wars sequel, the biggest political and economic event was the Spanish general election which confirmed the end of the PP-PSOE political duopoly at national level.  As a result, there was some early underperformance in SPGBs and initial equity weakness across European stocks, which however was promptly offset and at last check the Stoxx 600 was up 0.4% to 363, with US equity futures up nearly 1% after Friday's oversold drubbing. In other key news, the commodity slide continues with Brent Oil dropping to a fresh 11-year low as futures fell as much as 2.2% in London after a 2.8% drop last week.

BANZAI7 FOOD BEVERAGE AND MANBOOB WARNING...