Archive - Dec 31, 2015

USDJPY tried and failed... and so the machines shifted their momentum ignition efforts to crude - ramping WTI back up to post-API inventory build levels... If this fails to break the S&P above VWAP, VIX will be slammed...

Some have called Cass Sunstein "America's Goebbels" since he sugggested that the government "formally hire credible private parties to engage in counterspeech," and was engaged by President Obama as 'Information Tzar'. So today's op-ed from the government's propagandist-in-chief, condemning those who choose to push back against political correctness, should be read with a Bernaysian perspective as Sunstein attempts to delegitimize any and every effort to argue against the government's view of the world.

As the fervor of the US Presidential campaign begins to heat up, it appears - despite all the hand-wringing and prosecution of the status quo - that the incumbents are losing... and losing large. According to Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort survey, Republicans are near the most confident relative to Democrats since Obama was re-elected.

As Europe closes ahead of a long weekend of excess 'liquidity' and hangovers, it appears someone or something needs US Dollars badly... A sudden wave of selling across all the majors has spiked the dollar index.

The Muslim population of Britain surpassed 3.5 million in 2015 to become around 5.5% of the overall population of 64 million. In real terms, Britain has the third-largest Muslim population in the European Union, after France, then Germany. Islam and Islam-related issues were omnipresent in Britain during 2015, and can be categorized into five broad themes: 1) Islamic extremism and the security implications of British jihadists in Syria and Iraq; 2) the continuing spread of Islamic Sharia law in Britain; 3) the sexual exploitation of British children by Muslim gangs; 4) Muslim integration into British society; and 5) the failures of British multiculturalism.

Between Draghi's disappointment, Kuroda's un-dovishness, China's currency war, and flailing faith in The Fed (as policy errors loom), it appears European stocks were not the "no brainer" investment everyone promised them to be after all. December's 5% plunge was the worst for this time of year since 2002 (2nd worst on record).

This was not supposed to happen...

The Fed’s crystal ball is in serious need of a recalibration. Fed governors simply haven’t a flippin’ clue what to really expect from the economy. The gold market knows that. It knows that the U.S. economy is like an obese American who has taken up jogging to get into shape... only after the first lap around the track, it’s bent at the knees, huffing and puffing, and feeling like it’s gonna keel over.

As tensions continue to rise in both the South China Sea (see the recent protest by dozens of Filipinos in the Spratlys) and the East China Sea (where Beijing and Tokyo are feuding over disputed islands and claims on oil and gas fields), the PLA has begun building China's second aircraft carrier in yet another sign that Xi fully intends to build a true blue water navy.

America has never - ever - avoided a recession when Chicago's Business Barometer has collapsed to these levels. At 42.9, missing the expectations of 50.0 by the most ever, down from 48.7 in November, the final US economic data point of the year sums up perfectly what a disaster Yellen has hiked rates into.

The S&P 500 closed 2014 at 2058.90 and is currently trading below that level as the market opens. For the sake of faith in The Fed's "control" and trust in central planners ability to do "whatever it takes," it appears NYFed better "get back to work" soon to save the world.

Despite such endless financial engineering, sales for the S&P 500 have been declining for the last three quarters. And profits have declined for the first time since the 2009 expansion. Simply put: The recovery is a mirage... It isn’t real... And it isn’t sustainable.

Year-over-year, initial jobless claims are unchanged as the week-ending with Christmas Day saw a Scorrge-like 20,000 surge in initial claims. This is the largest weekly rise since February with 2015 ending with the highest initial claims print in 5 months.

Yesterday, in keeping with what has become a daily tradition, we asked a simple question: "Which hedge fund will close today." It turns out that despite our intention, the question was not rhetorical because just a few hours later Bloomberg answered, when it reported that the latest hedge fund casualty was another iconic, long-term investor: Scott Bommer's SAB Capital, which as of a year ago managed $1.1 billion, and which is now returning all outside money.

It appears the machines will have their work cut out today to keep the 'green for 2015' dream alive today as the last 30 minutes have seen selling accelerate across stock and commodity markets with bonds and the dollar bid.