Archive - Dec 4, 2015

The mainstream media is increasingly suggesting that we have once again entered into a 'Goldilocks Economy.' The problem is that in the rush to come up with a 'bullish thesis' as to why stocks should continue to elevate in the future, they have forgotten the last time the U.S. entered into such a state of 'economic bliss.' You might remember this: "The Fed's official forecast, an average of forecasts by Fed governors and the Fed's district banks, essentially portrays a 'Goldilocks' economy that is neither too hot, with inflation, nor too cold, with rising unemployment." - WSJ Feb 15, 2007. Of course, it was just 10-months later that the U.S. entered into a recession followed by the worst financial crisis since the 'Great Depression.'

The bad news - CDC says Ecoli has been discovered in 9 states owing to Chipotle
The reaction - Chipotle rescinds previous outlook, sees Q4 Comps down 8%-11%
The silver-lining - $300 million buybacks - so BTFD you fools!!

Nearly four months Colorado’s intrastate crowdfunding laws went into effect, the state now has its own equity crowdfunding platform exclusively for its residents.

Presented with no comment...

This is WAY beyond ‘if you see something, say something.’

"You can't 'comply' because there is no rule of law. The best thing you can do is establish processes for who is likely to be taken away, and how to make sure they aren't disappeared forever."

CNN Turkey, citing security forces officials, is reporting what appears to be yet another escalation in the middle east maelstrom as Turkish troops enter Iraq. So suddenly, just as the world is scrutinizing Turkey's role in the Islamic State oil trade, Ankara decides to send anti-ISIS troops across the border? Are they trying to secure the crude trade and guard the trafficking routes?

French voters are about to head to the polls for the first time since last month’s terrorist attacks in Paris. This alone is enough to make the upcoming regional elections particularly significant. However, as in pretty much every recent French election, all eyes will be on the performance of Marine Le Pen’s Front National. According to the latest polls, the anti-immigrant party looks close to a breakthrough at the regional level... Front National has never governed a French region. It now looks on course to win two of them.

As a consequence, on the back of the rate decision and press conference, EUR/USD soared after touching intra month lows in the build up and falling below the 1.0550 level to then break above 1.0900 and sustaining the strength through to the end of the week.

"People are afraid. They don’t like to see the headlines and that is why they are withdrawing their money. It shows the panic that is going on from the investors’ perspective.”

Un-rigged...

There is little question that bullshit is a real and consequential phenomenon (especially popular in the financial markets and central planning arena). Indeed, as the following scientific study finds, given the rise of communication technology and the associated increase in the availability of information from a variety of sources, both expert and otherwise, bullshit may be more pervasive than ever before. Despite these seemingly commonplace observations, we know of no psychological research on bullshit. Are people able to detect blatant bullshit? Who is most likely to fall prey to bullshit and why?

Saudi Arabia is at risk of becoming a major destabilizing influence in the Arab world, German intelligence has warned. Internal power struggles and the desire to emerge as the leading Arab power threaten to make the key Western ally a source of instability, according to the BND intelligence service. “The current cautious diplomatic stance of senior members of the Saudi royal family will be replaced by an impulsive intervention policy,” a BND memo widely distributed to the German press reads.

Following yesterday's crash in the DAX, and historic surge in the Euro after an ECB announcement which many suggested was another central bank policy error, moments ago Mario Draghi did everything in his power to reverse said error, which in a speech in New York, he effectively doubled down on his "whatever it takes" posture, and said that not only is "QE there to stay", but could be "calibrated" if needed and the ECB can use "further tools" if needed. The result: a parabolic nove higher in the S&P which is now well higher than before yesterday's drop.