Archive - Dec 7, 2015

US equity markets opened and stunned onlookers by not going instantly vertical on a morning bid-fest. Instead, everything is falling. The Dow is back in the red for 2015 but it is Small Caps that are worst hit as they give up all of Friday's God- Draghi-given gains...

77% of CNBC viewers believed "the bottom was in" on June 4th 2015 (with crude having rallied in the few days up to the survey to over $63). It appears things did not work out as the 'smart money' expected. The current front-month (Jan 2016) WTI is now tradingh at $38.25... well below the August cycle lows and back to the lowest since 2009...

Just an innocent typo by CNN, or an advance look at president Obama's next job who after having "fixed" the U.S., now sets his sights on doing the same to this erstwile socialist paradise?

While countless overzealous obituaries have been written about OPEC’s vanishing influence, OPEC is indeed acknowledging that it cannot influence prices to the degree that it once could. However, the result at least shows that OPEC is going to see its current strategy through to its logical conclusion, to the chagrin of most of its members.

After a week full of macroeconomic and headline news (and blooper) fireworks, it’s a fairly quiet start to the week today, with the usual post-payrolls lull in the US.

“We have come with our honor to recognize these adverse results, to accept them and tell Venezuela that the constitution and democracy have triumphed, We accept the results just as they have been announced by the electoral body.”

To help Main Street, the Fed must stop incentivizing speculation over investment and end policies that have shifted wealth and income to the top of the wealth pyramid. Main Street's woes are largely structural: the high cost of regulations, the soaring cost of healthcare insurance, the artificial-scarcity costs imposed by cartels enforced by the federal government and the pressures generated by globalization and automation. The Fed can't solve those problems, but it can certainly stop enriching the already-super-wealthy at the expense of the rest of us.

As one hedge fund favorite long crashes (Chipotle is down 9% in the pre-market), so another hedge fund favorite short is about to spike (once it reopens for trading). JAB Group has decided that now is the time to offer a 78% premium to current prices to buy Keurig Green Mountain for $92 (note that is still down over 40% from its highs a year ago). The stock is currently halted at $51.51 leaving the 12% short interest biting their nails at the prospect of major losses and a good 'volkswagen-ing'.

Following Friday's plunge after OPEC "held" steady, confirming the strategy of crushing US Shale is here to stay, WTI Crude has continued its carnage and is back to a $38 handle for the first time since the August-month-end meltup... very close once again to cycle lows.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) have created a very dangerous situation. And it is one that few if any investors are assessing.

Overnight Goldman "concluded its review" of where the EUR will go in the medium and long-term, when Robin Brooks announced Goldman is now "Scaling Back our Expectation for Euro Downside" specifically saying the firm revises its forecast for EUR/$ to 1.07, 1.05 and 1.00 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 1.02, 1.00 and 0.95 previously) and lifts its year end-2017 forecast to 0.90 from 0.80. The result of Goldman's increase in its EUR forecast? The EUR promptly tumbled below 1.08

For the first time since the conflict in Syria began, coalition warplanes bombed Bashar al-Assad's troops in what may have been an "accident" or what may signal a dangerous strategic shift for the US. Meanwhile, Turkey says Russia violated the treaty governing passage in the Bosphorus by placing a soldier with a rocket launcher on the deck of the Caesar Kunikov.

• Obama in speech to nation vows to defeat 'new phase' of terrorist threat (Reuters)
• Clinton Urges Social-Media Intelligence Sharing in Terror Fight (WSJ)
• Obama urges tech, law enforcement to address social media used for plots (Reuters)
• NATO says won't send ground troops to fight IS (Reuters)
• Le Pen Scores Historic Victory in France's Regional Elections (BBG)

With Draghi's Friday comments, which as we noted previously were meant solely to push markets higher, taking place after both Europe and Asia closed for the week, today has been a session of catch up for both Asian and Europe, with Japan and China up 1% and 0.3% respectively, and Europe surging 1.4%, pushing government bond yields lower as the dollar resumes its climb on expectations that Draghi will jawbone the European currency lower once more, which in turn forced Goldman to announce two hours ago that it is "scaling back our expectation for Euro downside."

The mutual escalation between Turkey and Russia continued on Friday after Ankara detained four Russian ships for a laundry list of "violations." Meanwhile, a soldier was seen standing on the deck of the Russian warship Caesar Kunikov brandishing a surface-to-air missile as the vessel made its way through the Bosphorus.