Archive - Dec 2015

For the first time ever, S&P 100 traders are holding more than 3 put options for every call.

• Battered oil wins respite, lifts stocks (Reuters)
• Oil Halts Decline as Emerging Market Stocks Climb on China (BBG)
• Bonds Set to Beat Stocks Globally in 2015 After China Falters (BBG)
• SpaceX Falcon rocket nails safe landing in pivotal space feat (Reuters)
• China Leaders Flag More Stimulus After Top Economic Meeting (BBG)
• SEC to Retrench Case Against SAC’s Steven A. Cohen (WSJ)

It has been a seesaw session with U.S. stock index futures following their dramatic buying burst in the last half hour of market trading yesterday by first rising, then falling, then rising again alongside European equities both driven almost tick for tick with even the smallest move in the carry trade of choice, the USDJPY, even as Asian shares trade near intraday highs after China’s leaders signaled they will take further steps to support growth.

On Dec 16, Federal Chair Janet Yellen announced the Fed was raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. She will have to take it back.

Thar she Bros...

In the final throes of empire-decline, we invariably observe the more sociopathic trends of a failing power, such as we’re seeing today from the US. First and foremost, any empire declines as a result of economic mismanagement. Decline from within (pandering to the populace with “bread and circuses”) and without (endless conquest and/or maintenance of dominance over far-flung geography) drain even the wealthiest government. But the leaders of a collapsing empire invariably make a fatal mistake: they assume that all the goodwill the empire gained when it was on its rise is permanent – that it will continue, even if the empire behaves like the world’s foremost bully. This is never the outcome.

The following speech from freshman U.S. Senator Ben Sasse (R, Neb) is so thoughtful and inspiring, it should be required viewing for all American citizens. To hear a U.S. Senator sound more like a statesman than a corrupt hack politician for sale to the highest bidder, is such a breath of fresh air we almost can’t believe it’s real.

For the second time in two months, an economic data series that indicate drastically weak performance in China has been "suspended." Having seen Markit/Caixin's flash gauge of China's manufacturing discontinued in October (having plunged notably divergently from the government's official data), Bloomberg reports that the publishers of the alternative China Minxin PMI will stop updating the series to make a "major adjustment."

There's a marked difference between how African Americans and whites experience gun violence in the US. More specifically, "among whites, 77 percent of gun deaths are suicides. But among black Americans, 82 percent of gun deaths are homicides."

People are waking up to the darkness in American policing, and the cops don't like it one bit...

"Things took off beginning in September. Since then, our dealers have been totally overrun. We have never experienced anything like this in the 21 years of our corporate history. Fear: This is not rational. The important term is: 'refugee crisis'."

Two waves of IS terrorists are said to have been trained for terror attacks in Europe - either for suicide bombings, or for Paris-style handgun attacks.

The complicated financial landscape today has made everyone "slaves to the central bank" while ordinary people have found themselves stuck in debt, and spending all they have just to get by.

In a few minutes, a new Falcon 9 rocket belonging to Elon Musk's SpaceX is set to deliver 11 satellites to low-Earth orbit for ORBCOMM. If all goes as planned, the 11 satellites will be deployed approximately 20 minutes after liftoff, completing a 17-satellite, low Earth orbit constellation for ORBCOMM. Perhaps just as importantly, this mission also marks SpaceX’s return-to-flight as well as its first attempt to land a first stage on land. The landing of the first stage is a secondary test objective.