Archive - Dec 2015

On the heels of a 59% plunge in new Class 8 orders, we get a fresh take on freight transportation from Morgan Stanley and as you might expect, the picture is most assuredly not pretty. The bank's TLFIs are bumping along at their lowest levels since the crisis for flatbed, hot van, and refrigerated, suggesting the malaise is widespread.

Progressives are often good people with good intentions. However, modern Progressivism has evolved into something so shapeless and amorphous as to amount to little more than a belief in “things that sound nice.” Simply out, everything is now a taxpayer-funded "right."

"Following Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet striking the Islamic State (IS), it is undeniable that Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdogan supports jihad terrorism in Syria. IS exports oil via Turkey and terrorists of IS, al-Qaeda, and other jihad groups transit the border."

Wait, isn't direct funding of the Treasury against US policy: after all, hasn't Bernanke been on the record countless times repeating that the Fed does not monetize the US deficit? Not anymore...

Operating largely out of public view - in tax court, through arcane legislative provisions and in private negotiations with the Internal Revenue Service - the wealthy have used their influence to steadily whittle away at the government’s ability to tax them. The effect has been to create a kind of private tax system, catering to only several thousand Americans. This is precisely what Obama will be remembered for by history, bailing out and protecting the 0.01%, at the expense of everyone else.

It's that time of year again. When hindsight is 20/20 and coulda/woulda/shoulda gives way to reality. With the US equity market barely able to keep its head above green water, a look around the world shows investors could have done a lot better... (or not)

Brussels Mayor Yvan Mayeur has decided to cancel the New Year's fireworks display, after receiving the advice of Belgium's coordinating unit for threat analysis.

Thanks to the deep digging from Judicial Watch, we now know that President Obama's Christmas 2013 vacation to Hawaii cost taxpayers a handy $8.1 million. The itinerary, we are sure, was very similar to this year's golfing (and shave ice) extravaganza, which explains why, the known total expense to the American taxpayers thus far for all Obama travel is now $70,880,035.78. Well, it's only fair right?

2015's stock market range (from high to low) is among the narrowest since World War II. This 'compression' has led the horde of asset-gatherers and commission-takers to suggest that stocks are a "coiled spring" ready to burst higher from this newly-formed permanent plateau. However, as S&P Capital IQ's Sam Stoval notes, that is the exact opposite of what to expect based on history. In fact a narrow range year is typically followed by a low return year, not a high return year.

As oil prices wallow near multi-year lows, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the new cartel controlling oil prices is not OPEC but world credit markets. From Saudi Arabia’s record $100 billion deficit to shale oil’s continuing reliance on cheap credit funding, it’s clear that no major oil producer or company in the world right now is economically self-sufficient based on oil revenues alone. This situation has left the flow of oil and the decision on when to stop pumping the increasingly tarnished black gold in the hands of banks rather than oil men.

In a move that will surely raise even more eyebrows if not launch a shockwave across Palo Alto just yet, Fidelity Investments said in its monthly holdings report that it has slashed the valuations of even more unicorns, starting with the biggest one of all, Uber, when it lowered the value of its stake in the company's Series D shares by 7.5% from Oct. 30-Nov. 30, while adding more pain to Dropbox investors when it lowered its value of the cloud service company by another -2.2%.

“To make a total payment will be almost impossible. If a partial payment is made: what bonds should we pay? It is an assessment that is being done. It is highly unlikely that there will not be default, in whole or partially.”