Archive - Dec 2015

After 10 weeks of inventory builds, API reports a 1.9mm barrel draw (hugely missing DOE expectations of a 1.3mm build). The initial reaction was a knee-jerk higher by 25c, but we note that Cushing saw a 614k barrel build (5th week in a row) and is perhaps the more crucial storage level to montori. As one trader noted, "OPEC wants to produce as much as they want," and as global land (and sea) storage fills, so "$35 is clearly a level of interest."

With the oil price collapse accelerating (Brent just dropped below $40 for the first time since Feb 2009), the currencies of major oil-exporting nations - such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian crown - are plunging...

“I’ve always known about your and your people’s complete lack of trust in me and the PMDB. A lack of trust that is incompatible with what we’ve done to maintain personal and partisan support for your government.”

Hitler said often that the bigger the lie, the easier it would be [for the masses] to believe.  This is no where more true than Forex.

It appears Donald Trump's latest outburst has pushed the GOP to hit the panic button (just as we warned was probable). Just four months after Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Reince Priebus said that Donald Trump is offering his party’s voters a breath of fresh air, WSJ reports that Republican 'operative' Liz Mair is launching "Trump Card LLC" - a SuperPAC aimed at torpedo-ing The Donald's campaign.

There was a time, not so long ago, when "terrorism" was great news for the oil complex (and thus energy stocks). Since The Fed enabled the unleashing of expensive American shale oil, that appears not to be the case anymore... (until the radical ideologs start attacking Oklahoma and Texas?)

In the end, we are just human. Despite the best of our intentions, it is nearly impossible for an individual to be devoid of the emotional biases that inevitably lead to poor investment decision making over time. This is why all great investors have strict investment disciplines that they follow to reduce the impact of human emotions. Take a step back from the media and Wall Street commentary for a moment and make an honest assessment of the financial markets today. Does the current extension of the financial markets appear to be rational? Are individuals current assessing the "possibilities" or the "probabilities" in the markets?

Dow Transports are in reverse. Down over 3% today, the biggest drop since the Black Monday collapse, Trannies are now below the lows of the Bullard bounce from October 2014 and down a shocking 16% in 2015. This would be the first four-quarters-in-a-row drop in Transports since 1994 and the worst year since 2008...

Wake up world, the EU hasn’t experienced 2% inflation since BEFORE the Crisis erupted in earnest in 2012. Three NIRP cuts and over €1 trillion in QE later, the EU is on the verge of deflation again.

Considering the plethora of specials on the curve, which included both the 2Y, 3Y and the 10Y, it is hardly surprising that many took opportunity to cover the structural short headed into today's auction by purchasing paper in the primary market.

Man Group, which runs $76.8 billion in assets, said on its website that its $4.4 billion AHL Diversified fund lost 5.1% on Thursday. Among other funds to have been running bets, to a greater or lesser extent, against the euro were Brevan Howard Asset Management, which oversees about $25 billion in assets; Tudor Investment Corp.; Moore Capital Management; and Caxton Associates, said investors. "Pretty much everyone was short the euro. The view was very clear for everyone."

Of the many economic policies that are accepted as true yet are absolute nonsense, perhaps none is more achingly nonsensical than the notion that weakening a nation's currency will magically make that nation prosperous. No empire has ever prospered by weakening its currency. Reducing the purchasing power of one's money is the road to ruin, not prosperity.

While it will hardly come as a surprise to its employees (who were warned a week ago that 25% of all fixed income workers would lose their jobs in the immediate future) most had hoped that the bailed out bank would at least have the ethics to wait with the layoffs until after the new year, now just three weeks away. It did not.