Archive - Dec 2015

After asking rhetorically "if something just blew up in junk," as CCC-yields explode to crisis-peak levels - suggesting something "spectaculor" is occurring as one trader noted, The FT reports that, according to Standard & Poor’s, companies have defaulted on $78bn worth of debt so far this year with 2015 set to finish with the highest number of worldwide defaults since 2009.

"When Russia courageously stepped into the breach we should have been applauding its willingness to confront ISIS. Instead, we continue to denigrate Russians as if they were still the Soviet Union and Putin, not Islamic terrorists, our most vicious enemy."

Researchers at Duke University and the University of California at Berkeley point to quantitative evidence that The Fed consistently leaks non-public information about its meetings, driving an investment pattern that has led to market gains.

They aren`t about to stand for a strong dollar in a world where it is a competitive advantage to devalue currencies from a multinational profits, tourism and global trading perspective.

As the USDollar plunges under the weight of short-squeezed EUR FX traders, so commodities are making gains. With OPEC right around the corner, WTI continues to bethe highest beta and has soared back to yesterday's highs on no news whatsoever (apart from comments from OPEC that they will only cut if non-OPEC cuts).

The rout beneath the relative calm of the market surface continues today as another sector has gotten crushed today in reaction to the domestic and global collapse in trade, the spreading domestic manufacturing recession and the bursting of the commodity bubble: truckers, and especially the heaviest, Class 8 trucks, those with a gross weight over 33K pounds, those which make up the backbone of U.S. trade infrastructure and logistics.

The S&P 500 (cash) index just broke back below the crucial 200-day moving-average (at 2,064) for the first time since the Paris terror attack rally began. This has dragged the index back to unchanged year-to-date with only Nasdaq holding gains in 2015.

It was just a few weeks ago that the International Monetary Fund predicted that Saudi Arabia would likely be bankrupt within the next five years. Saudi Arabia’s financial position is deteriorating rapidly, and the government is burning through cash like a coked-up rock star.  The Saudis followed this up with plans now to build the world’s tallest skyscraper, which would stand a full kilometer in height. Seriously, what are these people thinking? What kind of idiot goes out of his way to blow through cash when he’s rapidly going broke? Why, the United States of America of course.

Having ramped its way up to the cliff's edge of China devaluation and Black Monday's free-fall, Germany's DAX has come unbuttoned rapidly with a 480-plus point droip today. Down over 5.5% in the last 3 days, crushed back under 11,000 today with a 3.75% crash - the most since August 24th - all thanks to Draghi over-selling his "whatever-it-takes"-ness... after the Paris Terror attacks.

She warned against a EU superstate by saying famously: "We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them reimposed at a European level, with a European superstate exercising a new dominance from Brussels."

The entire Treasury curve is getting battered with 30Y +13bps, back above 3.00%. The belly is the most dramatic with 7Y yields up over 11bps - the biggest single-day surge in 7 months. 5Y yields are up over 9bps pushing back to the "wall" of resistance...

The gap between real house prices and real earnings is even wider than it was in Housing Bubble 1. History (and common sense) suggest that housing prices will once again fall sharply until the black line of house prices is well below the red line of real earnings. To expect anything different is unrealistic and highly dangerous to one's financial well-being.

Having stated unequivocally last week that "we can't let this become the new normal.. enough is enough," following the Planned Parenthood shooting, President Obama - having seen a record amount of background checks for gun purchases over the Black Friday weekend - is set to make a statement (alongside his National Security Team) with regard the mass shooting in San Bernardino yesterday...

Here is a chart which will make the US manufacturing recession visible even to the most tenured central planner and economist.