Archive - Dec 2015

US Services PMI rose from 54.8 in October to 56.1 in November - the highest since May 2015 (but this is a drop from the flash print of 56.5 and 2nd biggest miss against expectations of the year). ISM Services crashed from 59.1 to 55.9 (drastically missing expectations) hovering near its lowest since April 2014. Weakness is across the board with Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, Backlog, Exports and Imports all down. Why is the service economy slipping? Simple, the "Affordable Care Act impacting our business, reducing revenue while increasing cost of care."

Low gas prices? High stock prices? Fed confidence in the economy? Fuhgetaboutit... Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort Index just crashed to its lowest since November 16th. It seems the confidence in the fact that The Fed ended QE3 was entirely misplaced after all...

Having yesterday explained how The Fed is "devoted" to Americans' interests and how "excited" she is to raise rates, Janet Yellen is set to face the Joint Economic Committee of Congress today... to explain to them how - in her mind - everything is awesome enough to hike rates, despite Chinese stocks crashing again, carnage in commodities, a revenues recession, plunging EBITDA, a collapse in US manufacturing, housing rolling over, and auto sales fading (light vehicle incentives up 14% YoY). Following the renewed volatility in markets, thanks to Draghi, the question is will Yellen be a little more hawkish given the room the ECB has given her?

One recurring word prevails in every single Wall Street reaction to Mario Draghi's announcement today: "disappointment"... the same disappointment we warned about yesterday, and which we said could push the EURUSD to 1.09 today, just as happened an hour earlier.

"How does all this play out? Timing is the key because as gamblers know there isn’t an endless stream of Martingale chips – even for central bankers acting in unison. One day the negative feedback loop on the real economy will halt the ascent of stock and bond prices and investors will look around like Wile E. Coyote wondering how far is down. But when? When does Martingale meet its inevitable fate? I really don’t know; I’m just certain it will."

How do you stop a market from falling? Simple!!

A sudden miraculous bid for USDs over JPY has managed to rescue stocks from the precipice of year-to-date redness for now... but bonds (dragged by Bund's collapse) ain't buying the bounce...

Update: PSPP extended to March 2017 "or beyond", regional debt added to QE-eligible asset pool

Having just let everyone down with a less-than-spectacular 10 bps depo rate cut, Mario Draghi will now try to appease a spoiled market by announcing an expansion and/or an extension of PSPP. 

Back in March 2014, the ECB predicted that inflation at the end of 2015 would be 1.3%. Moments ago, with less than a month left in the year, the ECB has trimmed its forecast to just 0.1%. Oops.  But what about next year? Well, see for yourselves...

Un-"Liquidity"...

And there goes hopes for a bigger bazooka...

Following the surprise plunge in job layoffs (to 14-month lows) according to Challenger, Grey, and a day after exuberant ADP jobs data, initial jobless claims spoiled the party a little and rose 9k to 269k (in line with expectations). However, for The Fed, this is awesome, as the trend remains near 42 year lows. The question is - as the chart below shows - what happens next?

Over-promise and under-deliver appeears to have been the Draghi meme as the ECB chief's loss of control of market front-running  has left traders rapidly reversing their buy-the-rumor positions. EURUSD is spiking higher, Bund yields - most focused at the short-end - are surging, DAX is dumping, and US equity and bond markets are being sold. USD weakness has sparked gold and crude strength. We are gonna need a lot more jawboning in the press conference to save this...

If you just lost a ton of money, here's why.

• Mario Draghi Is About to Become the World's Market Risk Manager (BBG)
• Five Things to Ask Mario Draghi From Negative Rates to QE (BBG)
• Leaving behind baby and bombs, couple sows panic in California (Reuters)
• Couple's motive in California rampage a mystery for police, family (Reuters)
• In Grim Ritual, Barack Obama Again Calls for Stricter Gun Control After Mass Shooting (WSJ)
• Islamic State Defeat Impossible Without Ground Force, Kerry Says (BBG)
• OPEC States Push for Output Cuts in Face of Saudi Opposition (BBG)