Archive - Dec 2015

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel announced the resignation of Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy, amid growing furor over the administration’s handling of the shooting death of a black teenager by a white officer last year. “Now is the time for fresh ideas and new leadership” the mayor said.

Moments ago the GDPNow website announced that the latest model forecast for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 has now tumbled to a paltry 1.4 percent on December 1, down from 1.8 percent on November 25. "The decline occurred this morning after the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute of Supply Management and the construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau."

Long term risk has increased quite a bit, no matter which data points one happens to consider. Whether one looks at valuations, market internals, leverage or positioning, there are now more warning signs than ever. With the support provided by strong money supply growth declining as well, it becomes ever more likely that these potential dangers will actually materialize. It is an accident waiting to happen.

Smart money continues to accumulate gold and silver coins. Demand for American Eagle silver coins has also been strong, with year-to-date sales already reaching an annual record at 44.67 million ounces, breaking the full-year record of 44 million ounces in 2014

So what happens when an insatiable state-mandated cartel attaches itself to households with declining real incomes?

With December rate-hike odds sliding the most since the last FOMC meeting (down from 75% to 70%), following abysmal data this morning, it appears investors are reaching for the safety of Treasuries as either a fed policy error is about to be unleashed and/or growth is signficantly weaker than all the talking heads proclaim. With traders the most net short in years, this rapid plunge in yields could quickly accelerate.

“These special operators will over time be able to conduct raids, free hostages, gather intelligence, and capture ISIL leaders."

What rate hike? Following a relentless barrage of recessionary industrial and manufacturing data, moments ago the Business Roundtable released its latest, fourth quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, and it is an absolute disaster.

Update: MAYOR OF ISTANBUL'S BAYRAMPASA DISTRICT SAYS EXPLOSION NEAR  METRO STATION CAUSED BY BOMB, FIVE INJURED: RTRS

One person has been killed and at least six more injured as Turkey's Haberturk TV reports an explosion occurred at an Istanbul Metro station. The trains have been halted, passengers evacuated, and ambulances are on their way. While the cause is unknown (some are suggesting it was a power transformer), sounds of the explosion were heard across several districts of Istanbul according to local press, and residents of the city remain on high alert following Erdogan's actions last week.

While it is hoped that the economy can continue to expand on the back of the "service" sector alone, history suggests that "manufacturing" continues to play a much more important dynamic that it is given credit for... and that is a major problem as ISM Manufacturing just fell below 50 for the first time since Nov 2012, crashing to 48.6 - the weakest since June 2009. Across the components, new orders collapsed (worst since Aug 2012), and prices paid crashed. Seems like a perfect time to raise rates!!

Following China's surging and tumbling Manufacturing PMIs, and mixed data in Europe, US Manufacturing PMI's fell in November to 52.8 from October's hope-strewn bounce above 54. This is the weakest PMI print since October 2013 (as ISM Manufacturing tumbled to its lowest since Dec 2012). 30 regions have reported PMIs so far with half (15) seeing weakness (and just 13 seeing improvements) as new orders plunge to lowest since Oct 2013.

Despite ongoing exuberance at auto sales in America (which disappointed) - as crashing credit standards enable every Tom, Dick, and Muppet to buy too much 'depreciating asset' for their incomes - there are numerous problems few are talking about for automakers worldwide. Aside from "plans to buy a car" tumbling in the latest confidence surveys, and inventories-to-sales surging, China just poured ice cold water on any hope of stability in that 'growth' market as auto dealers issue the highest inventory alert since June. November data from China shows demand plunging, sales collapsing, and inventories soaring - a triple whammy of "no, things are not 'stabilizing'."

It’s quite easy to get carried away with the drawing of conclusions based on a few technical chart patterns (and we are not doing that here!), but this chart is just too ugly to at least go unmentioned.

Following the the stunning news that BlueCrest, until recently one of the Europe's largest and fastest growing hedge funds, will be essentially unwinding as it returns the bulk of its managed money to outside investors (according to Bloomberg $7 billion of the $8 billion in AUM will be returned), and will liquidate the vast majority of its holdings, the question is just which securities will have the overhang of a forced seller over the next few months. Here is the answer.

Who could have seen that coming? It appears, for America's northern brethren, low oil proces are unequivocally terrible. Against expectations of a flat 0.0% unchanged September, Canadian GDP plunged 0.5% - its largest MoM drop since March 2009 and the biggest miss since Dec 2008. With Canada's housing bubble bursting, it's time for the central planners to get back to work and re-invigorate the massive mal-invesment boom (and ban pawning of luxury goods).