Archive - Jan 2015

After reportedly rejecting Vladimir Putin's peace proposal and continuing heavy shelling in the pro-Russian-held regions of Donetsk, Ukraine's military spokesman Lysenko is reporting the Russian army is directly attacking Ukraine forces in the north conflict zone. The fight over what is now a destroyed Donetsk airport continues with Lysenko claiming to have stalled Russian forces adding that three Russian battallions are approaching the Ukraine border. CNN reports that the Russian Defense Ministry says, "Ukraine's allegations that Russian troops are in Ukraine are complete rubbish."

Even more disturbing than China's growth forecast, is what the IMF sees global growth doing, which nobody will be shocked to learn, has once again been drastically slashed lower. Why is this disturbing? Because as the world is slowly learning, it is all about trade, and central banks can't print trade.

Total Gold ETF physical holdings rose 0.85% on Friday (following Thursday's 0.78% rise) combining for the biggest 2-day rise since Nov 2011 (adding 843,000 ounces of gold in 2 days). Of course these moves came right after the SNB decision ands are the largest since the peg was announced in 2011. GLD - the largest gold ETF - saw holdings surge 1.9% on Friday, the biggest single-day surge in almost 5 years. Of course, once again this shows that only paper gold matters for price determination... physical is irrelevant (until of course, physical is all that matters).

It seems like an eternity ago when Obama delivered the following extensively choreographed "Statement by the President on ISIL", in which he praised US anti-terrorist tactics, giving Yemen and its "partners" as an example of "successful" US foreign intervention.  To wit: "This counterterrorism campaign will be waged through a steady, relentless effort to take out ISIL wherever they exist, using our air power and our support for partner forces on the ground.  This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years." He may want to scrub that statement because just 4 months after reading that from the Teleprompter, America's "partners on the Yemen front lines" have officially fled quietly into that good night, abandoning the control of the nation to local Shiite militiamen.

Breaking the stranglehold of vested interests is the essential step to rebuilding an economy that isn't totally dependent on manipulated money and statistics.

Having noted that voter angst has been riled, propagandized, and fear-mongered to the point at which the most pressing priority for Congress is to 'fix' terrorism, it is perhaps not entirely surprising that we discover - deep down in the archives - that giving the public someone to 'hate' as opposed to something may have been an entire fiction. As The New York Times exposed in 2007, Abdullah Rashid al-Baghdadi, the titular head of the Islamic State, according to Brigadier General Kevin Bergner - the chief American military spokesman at the time - never existed (and was actually a fictional character whose audio-taped declarations were provided by an elderly actor named Abu Adullah al-Naima). So he was a ghost back then.... is he a ghost again, designed purely to put a face on ISIS and the biggest bogeyman of the current global anti-terrorist mania?

What is it about central bankers who wait to tell the truth only after they have quit their post. First it was the maestro himself, the Fed's Alan Greenspan (most recently in "Greenspan's Stunning Admission: "Gold Is Currency; No Fiat Currency, Including the Dollar, Can Match It"), and now it is the Bank of England's former head, Mervyn King, who yesterday told an audience at the LSE that "more monetary stimulus will not help the world economy return to strong growth." That this is happening just as we learn that in one year the world's 1% will collectively own more wealth than the rest of the world combined, and two days before Goldman's Mario Draghi unleashed up to €1 trillion (if not unlimited) in QE, is hardly as surprise, and will be surely ignored by everyone until the inevitable outcome of another "French revolution" finally arrives.

NAHB Sentiment in January printed 57 (missing expectations of 58) down 1 from last month's upwardly revised 58 print. This headline mediocrity, however, hides a relative plunge in future sales expectations which tumbled to their lowest since June. Only the Midwest region saw improvement with the West region plunging 9 points to 66.

As stocks, copper, crude, and bond yields plunge this morning, gold (and silver) prices are surging. With gold near $1,300 - 5-month highs, and silver topping $18 - 4-month highs; it appears investor demand for non-fiat currency is growing (and not just for China and Russia)...

It was all so awesome. Chinese GDP 'beat' expectations which means everything is great (apart from it being the worst growth in 24 years) and so stocks rallied, helped by even moar ECB QE jawboning. But this morning's plunge in crude and copper (global growth?) finally knocked on into equity market reality as the opening ramp quickly gave way to selling pressure and erased all 'wealth' created by Chinese data. US Treasury yields are 3-5bps lower with 30Y testing 2.39%.

What's Are The Long Term Implications of the SNB actions last week?

In what Bloomberg's Richard Breslow calls "a sign of the times, and not a good one" the weekend has been dominated by politicians commenting on the ECB. Not only did Erdogan un-independently suggest Turkish policy action today (as we noted here), but now Merkel, Hollande, Noonan etc. are all telling you what the ECB should do or indeed will do and then telling you that, of course, the ECB is independent. Central Banks have essentially become enormous sovereign wealth funds manipulating the markets and very much in the thrall of geo-political events. This is a very problematic development which is an inevitable follow-on to the activism of central banks in their policy conduct.

Another day, another unambiguously bad announcement from America's bettered energy sector which are bolting down ahead of the crude storm, and firing thousands. Last week it was Schlumberger which announced it would fire 9000, today it is Baker Hughes which just warned it too will hand out about 7000 pink slips in the first quarter. And as a reminder, when it comes to comp: each Baker Hughes job is equivalent to about 10 waiter and bartender jobs, which have been the basis of this "recovery." To wit: BAKER HUGHES SEES WORKFORCE REDUCTION OF 7,000 WORKERS

WTI Crude prices are back below $48 having tumbled in the last few minutes. Copper prices are also sliding notably (as gold and silver slip). No immediate catalyst aside from delayed reaction from last night's slow and sure realization by The IMF that all is not well will global growth.