Archive - Jan 2015

The following documentary explains in detail how Japan’s post-war economic, political and social system was manipulated by the Japanese central bank. In all the gory detail, and worryingly prophetic of the current state of most western nations, "Princes of the Yen" reveals how Japanese society was transformed to suit the agenda and desire of powerful interest groups, and how citizens were kept entirely in the dark about this. It is an unprecedented challenge to today's dominant ideological belief system, and the control levers that underpin it. Piece by piece, reality is deconstructed to reveal the world as it is, not as those in power would like us to believe that it is..."Because only power that is hidden is power that endures."

Some speech is 'free-er' than others...

Having topped the charts for beheadings in 2014, and enforced gender segregation, US ally Saudi Arabia has decided that free-speech is 'practically' punishable by death. During a week when 'free speech' is being defended by every Western nation desparate to condemn the terrorist acts against France's satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, it is therefore quite stunning that, as The BBC reports, Raif Badawi - a Saudi Arabian blogger - was sentenced to 1,000 lashes (carried out over 50 weekly floggings), and 10 years in jail for insulting Islam. With 'friends' like this, who needs enemies?

For all those who are long the USD and short the 10Y, good luck because everyone else is too...

With crude oil prices in a strong corrective mode, energy depletion is understandably not on people’s minds these days. However, this is a scenario that many of us might have to deal with at some point in our lifetimes. We might be swimming in oil for now, but this should be no reason to become complacent. Our children and grandchildren will thank us for it.

Unemployment rate plunging? Job creation surging? Sure doesn't feel like that across America... this is why...

"Socialists/Communists try desperately to paint capitalism as the benefit of the greedy rich. People see the bankers as manipulating government but this is not inherent in capitalism, that is the corruption that infects all republics. A republic always devolves into an oligarchy, which is not freedom and is not capitalism."

Why not take 24hrs to strategically think through the surrounded man-hunt operation.  Slowly mechanically rolling up a shop's street level security gate?  You can't be serious!  

While talking heads and TV personalities reassure the investing public that low oil prices are "unambiguously awesome" for everyone, it seems the cracks in this narrative are starting to show. From falling wages, surging job cuts, plunging rig counts, and crashing capex, it's becoming a lot harder to 'pretend' that everything's fine. One wonders, when the companies themselves are slashing workweeks and cutting rig counts, when will 'investors' believe... perhaps now that Lynn Helms, Director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources explains to the House Appropriations Committee that at least half of its shale regions are already below breakeven.

Just 13 short months ago - two months before then President Yanukovich was ousted - Russia lent Ukraine $3 billion (by buying their Eurobonds). As Reuters reports, the terms of that loan included a condition that Ukraine's total state debt should not exceed 60% of its GDP. As of last month, based on Moody's estimates, Ukraine has violated that condition with a debt-to-GDP of 72% (and will likely rise to 85% of GDP in 2015).. and so, according to Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov, "Russia has the right to demand early return of this loan." With European aid 'contingent on major reforms' and possibly taking up to 1 year, this leaves the good old IMF (i.e. the US and European taxpayer) to bridge Ukraine's 'gap' and ironically bailout Russia.

After four-and-a-half years, we wound up back where we started.

Data and market positioning can explain movement in the currencies.  It does not prove that there is no manipulation or a great conspiracy.  It just means the markets are understandable without resorting to such explanations.    Try it.  

... things like a 50%+ drop in oil prices happen. Which at some point will lead more people to wonder what the real numbers are. For emerging nations, those numbers will not be pretty for 2015. They’re going to feel like they’re being thrown right back into the Stone Age. And they’re not going to like that one bit, and look for ways to express their frustration. Volatility is not just on the rise in the world of finance. It also is in the real world that finance fails to reflect. At some point, the two will meet again, and Wall Street will mirror Main Street. It will make neither any happier. But it’ll be honest.

And yet on Friday morning, the solution came to me in a shot. And, as with most good solutions, it comes from no less a place than Star Trek: The Original Series. Hear all now my idea: