Archive - Feb 15, 2015
David Stockman: The Global Economy Has Entered The Crack-Up Phase
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 23:30 -0500Few people understand the global economy and its (mis)management better than David Stockman -- former director of the OMB under President Reagan - and he is now loudly warning that events have entered the crack-up phase, which he predicts will be defined by four key developments. As the crack-up phase gains momentum, he predicts an increasing number of "financial breaks" that will add to the unpredictability and instability of the environment for investors. Even 'dancing close to the door' sounds excessively risky at this point.
30 Years Ago, Greece Bluffed Europe... And Won
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 22:25 -0500"European leaders resolved a bitter financial dispute with Greece today, paving the way for Spain and Portugal to join the Common Market at the start of next year. Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou of Greece had threatened to veto an agreement reached this week on Iberian membership unless the other nine members gave Greek farmers $2 billion in special subsidies to help them compete with Spain and Portugal. But after two days of negotiations at a European Economic Community meeting here, Greece was persuaded to accept about $1.4 billion in new agricultural aid in return for lifting its veto threat."
- March 31, 1985
Why One Citizen Is Not Breaking Up With America This Valentine's Weekend
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 22:20 -0500"So why do I stay? Why do any of us continue to put up with the gut-wrenching, soul-sucking, misery-drenched, demoralizing existence that is America today?"
"I Live In Constant Fear" Kyle Bass Explains How We Got Here
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 22:15 -0500"I constantly feel inadequate, which may be what drives me," Kyle Bass tells Raoul Pal in this excellent discussion between two of the world's foremost (non-status-quo-hugging everything-will-be-fine) market practitioners. The interview with Bass, from the newly launched Real Vision TV, covers everything from how he got started in his career, what drives him, his process "it's an art - there is no science to it", and not only how we got here, but where we are going (inevitably)...
Guest Post: The Great War Of The American Empire
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 22:05 -0500Looking at a map of current American military engagements overseas, one cannot help but notice their wide geographical spread and their seemingly interminable nature. Battles have raged in Europe (Yugoslavia and Ukraine), in Africa, in the Middle East, and in central Asia. The American Empire has launched this country into a series of battles that have no end in sight and no location that may not become a focal point of military force. Upon close inspection, however, all of their rationales fall apart. None is satisfactory. The interventions are too widespread, too long-lasting and too unsuccessful at what they supposedly accomplish to lend support to any of the common justifications.
Four Key Themes From Q4 Earnings: From Dollar Headwinds To Management Over-Confidence
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 21:30 -0500By reviewing the earnings transcripts from the companies of the S&P 500, Goldman Sachs notes 4 key themes emerge from the maelstrom of double-speak, bravado, and actual data (GAAP or non-GAAP). Without question the US Dollar strength is a drag on multinationals and CEOs are resolute in that (despite mainstream media prognostications that 'king dollar' is "unequivocally good") but what CEOs and CFOs seems just as resolutely positive about is that while macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties still exist in Asia and Europe, they expect solid US economic growth in 2015. It appears - given the data - they will be disappointed.
Welcome To Eccles Island: Where Tulips Bloom In A Polar Vortex
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 20:55 -0500The week just ended laid bare any pretensions that there is not something wrong (seriously wrong) within the natural world of both the macro underpinnings of business as well as finance. Unimaginable just a short 6 years ago, the U.S. equity markets closed at a height once again never before seen in human history highs, (it has more than tripled from the 2008 bottom!) but has done so solely on Keynesian fairy tales. The issue now is: does the fairytale end in a nightmare?
"The World's Most Sophisticated Cyber Attack" - How Hackers Infiltrated The Banks & Stole Millions
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 20:20 -0500Since late 2013, The NY Times reports that an unknown group of hackers has reportedly stolen $300 million - possibly as much as triple that amount - from banks across the world, with the majority of the victims in Russia. The attacks continue, all using roughly the same modus operandi...
The Greatest Obama "Error" Ever?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 19:54 -0500Presented without comment.
JPY Slides After Japanese GDP Disappoints (Again); Economy Minister "Hopes" For Wage Increases
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 19:39 -0500It appears "hope" is a strategy in Japan. Abe's nation emerged from recession in Q4 but with business spending (capex grew at a mere 0.1%) and private consumption (+0.3% - which Amari defined as "solid private demand supporting economic recovery") both coming in considerably below estimates, Japanese GDP QoQ SAAR grew at+2.2% (missing expectations of 3.7%) but real GDP growth was negative for the 3rd quarter in a row. Of course the GDP deflator grew at 2.3%, beating expectations, is desperately clung to by Japan's economy minster Amari as evidence of the end of deflation in Japan.
GATA And Martin Armstrong Have Gone At It For Nearly 17 Years!
Submitted by lemetropole on 02/15/2015 19:13 -0500
A couple of days ago a Café member sent me some of the latest commentary by Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics, formally of Princeton Economics International. As you will read, he continues his rant against "the gold promoters," a rant that seemed more than vaguely familiar.
What an understatement!
Artist's Impression Of Washington's Ukraine Policy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 18:35 -0500Presented with no comment...
Two More Harbingers Of Financial Doom That Mirror The Crisis Of 2008
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 18:00 -0500The stock market continues to flirt with new record highs, but the signs that we could be on the precipice of the next major financial crisis continue to mount. There are multiple warning signs that have popped up repeatedly just prior to previous financial crashes, and many of those same warning signs are now appearing once again.
First Genetically Modified "Browning-Resistant" Apple Approved For US Consumption
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 17:15 -0500With only 37% of the public believing that genetically-modified foods are 'safe', The Arctic apple - which resists browning when cut open or sliced - faces an uphill battle for 'success'. But as WSJ reports, the non-browing trait makes it particularly attractive for restaurants, grocery stores, airlines and other companies that offer pre-sliced fruit, and since The Agriculture Department on Friday approved it as the first genetically modified apple for sale in the U.S., the debate over the safety (and labelling) of modified foods reignites. While "getting the consumer to buy in to the product has to be the priority," notes Okanagan, environmentalists warn "there is no place in the U.S. or global market for genetically engineered apples."
The Un-Retiring, Increasingly Disabled Non-Working American Dream
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/15/2015 16:30 -0500For the past few years (here from 2012 to most recently here) we have vociferously argued that the state of the US labor force is anything but healthy (and anything but cyclical) as the structural aging of America (where work is punished, college is free, and retirement long forgotten) drags at The American Dream. Even Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius - now desperate for a less positive spin to employment, in hopes of keeping The Fed dovish-er longer-er, has admitted that because of discouragement, disability, and schooling, coupled with a slowdown in the rise of the retired population will slow the pace of decline of the unemployment rate.



