Archive - Feb 19, 2015

After spending the past year deteriorating with each passing month, as global acceleration dipped decidedly in the negative camp, the only thing that kept the Goldman Global Leading Indicator "swirlogram" somewhat buoyant was that "Growth" measured in absolute terms had remained slightly positive. Not any more: according to Goldman's latest global economic read, the world is now officially in contraction, following a sharp plunge in both acceleration and growth in February.

"We’re more leveraged today than in 2006-2007," warns Thomas von Koch - managing partner at EQT, the largest buyout fund in the Nordic region, adding that "there are financial bubbles being built up and how they’ll be solved, I don’t know." As Bloomberg reports, von Koch concludes, an unprecedented era of monetary stimulus is inflating asset prices across markets to extreme levels, with history offering little help in predicting how it will all end - "The problem is global, not just for Europe. It’s the asset bubbles in general that concern me. It’s wherever we look."

Back in January, the FOMC surprised many when in its statement is noted that in addition to financial it was also keeping tabs on "international developments" making many wonder just whose central bank the Fed is. Why Yellen's obsession with all things international? The answer may lie in Yellen's 2014 calendar, which the WSJ has parsed and found that of her 950 meetings from February to December (one wonders just when does the Fed chair actually do work outside of meeting rooms of course), the Fed chair spent more time conversing with foreign officials (68 meetings) than with members of the White House (51 meetings).

UPDATE: *GREEK GOVT WON'T ACCEPT ULTIMATUMS, WON'T GIVE ANY: OFFICIAL

After days of repeated ultimata from The Eurogroup, as Germany (bad cop) and the rest (good cop) make optimistic sounds, this morning's rejection of Greece's latest plan (following Greek comparisons of Germany to Nazi surrender demands) has prompted something new:

*EU HAS 2 CHOICES, APPROVE OR REJECT GREEK REQUEST; EUROGROUP MEETING TO SHOW WHO WANTS A SOLUTION: GREEK OFFICIAL

Markets are stumbling on this news as Germany and the rest come to terms with not just the billions in debt on ECB and various bank balance sheets but the 49 billion other reasons to avoid Grexit that have mounted in TARGET2 liabilities.

While one of the robbers distracted the 69-year old with paper work the other stole his gold - 13 bars, each weighing 1 kilogram or 32.15 ounces each with a total value of US$500,000.

A regular reader recently raised a subject (on our Forum) which should be a frequent topic of discussion in our ultra-corrupt societies, but isn’t: usury. Everyone knows the meaning of the word: lending money at “excessive” or “exorbitant” rates of interest. Yet few of us ever contemplate its significance.

Between European uncertainty and last night's massive API inventory build (14.3mm barrels), Brent and WTI crude was sliding into today's inventory data - well off the kneejerk highs at the US equity open (and back under $50). Market participants expected a US crude inventory build of around 3 million barrels but the number more than doubled that at 7.72 million barrels and production soared to new record highs. Idiot algos kneejerked higher (because 7.72 is lower than 14.3?) but that insanity is fading fast...

Earlier today, we got a glimpse of precisely how HFTs are now making a mockery of FX "price discovery" when completely independent of any newsflow, Canadian Dollar futures cratered on what is merely the latest of many flash crashes now coming to an FX market near you.

Hacking - blame The Russians. Global geopolitical instability - blame The Russians. Stock market lower - blame The Russians. Extreme cold weather... guess who?

The dark truth about the Greek debt negotiations that Central Banks have been trying to hide.

Following January's crash in Philly Fed from 21-year highs to 12-month lows, expectations among the Keynesian-gazers was for a mean-reverting bounce... it didn't. Falling for the 3rd month in a row, Philly Fed printed a worse-than-expected 5.2 (against 8.43 exp), its lowest in a year. New Orders tumbled to its lowest in a year but most critically, "hope" - the six-month forward outlook index  - tumbled from 50.9 to 29.7 - the biggest MoM drop since lehman.

Once upon a time, Caterpillar was the world's industrial bellwether and a Dow Jones Industrial staple. Lately, in addition to suddenly developing a very close relationship with Federal authorities who "are investigating the movement of cash among Caterpillar Inc. ’s U.S. and overseas subsidiaries", CAT has become a completely ignored and forgotten poster name of the "old-economy" (the on in which cash flow still mattered). However, there are those who still  believe that the second coming "eyeballs" as the only valuation term category is destined to end in tears, and as such care about how companies like CAT do. Sadly, we have some more bad news: Caterpillar just reported that in January, it suffered its worst retail sales month since Lehman, with global sales plunging 14% from last January.

But guess what? It's really, really, really different this time! In this one short post, there's more than enough indisputable evidence of a bubble than anyone can justifiably ignore.

Yesterday, when we reported that the last Ukraine outpost in the rebel-controlled eastern territory, the town of Debaltseve, has fallen into separatist hands, we concluded that "perhaps the only question is whether fighting continues around Mariupol which would enable Russia to have a land corridor all the way to Crimea." Moments ago we got the answer when Reuters reported that "pro-Russian separatists have launched mortar attacks on government-held positions near the coastal town of Mariupol in southeast Ukraine and are building up their forces there, local military reached by telephone said on Thursday."

The S&P 500 and Dow futures are now trading back below the pre-Greek Talks Fail levels from Monday on desk chatter from a New York think-tank claiming contingency planning for a "dirty exit" are being made...