Archive - Feb 20, 2015

For the 11th week in a row (2008/9 saw 20 weeks in a row), US rig counts fell and production hit record highs. Rig counts are tracking the lagged price of oil's decline almost perfectly, with total rigs having dropped 32% from the highs. Notably last week's rig count drop was the smallest in 4 weeks (down just 48 to 1310) with oil rigs dropping 37 to 1,019. Oil prices dropped on this news on worries at the slowing pace of rig count closure.

The retail sales data proved it... The Fed admitted it... and now Goldman Sachs has proved it... there is no 'economic stimulus' benefit from low gas prices for the US consumer (it is, simply put, merely a transfer of consumption from one good to another - or worse, it is saved or used to pay for healthcare or debt). As Goldman explains so clearly in its analysis of WalMart's results, the correlation between gas prices and WalMart same-store-sales "is nearly zero."

Update: according to Capital.gr, the agreement will cove a 4 not 6-month extension, is not considered a completion of current program, there will be no new austerity measures, and no new unilateral actions by Greece.

Just minutes after convening - following a few hours of backroom shuttle diplomacy, Bloomberg reports:

1235ET GREEK OFFICIAL SAYS IT APPEARS EUROGROUP HAS REACHED AN ACCORD; 1243ET GREEK GOVT SPOKESMAN SAYS NOT INFORMED OF ANY EUROGROUP DEAL

US equity and EURUSD markets kneejerked higher but refuse to fade the denial.

The real issue here is that economic weakness is likely much greater than headline statistics, and the vast majority of mainstream economists, actually suggest.  Furthermore, as we have repeatedly stated in the past, the ability for the U.S. economy to withstand the global storm of deflation is vastly limited. It will be interesting to see what the Federal Reserve does next.

*EU MEETING ON GREECE PUSHED BACK AGAIN TO 11AM ET., GREECE SENT THE WRONG LETTER TO EU

Finance ministers from across Europe are arriving in Brussels for the latest, most critical (until the next one) stare-down across the table at The Greeks. As Germany's Schaeuble noted somewhat pessimistically "we shall see," on the outcome of today's meeting, adding that Greece "must take seriously" previous agreements and "Europe needs mutual trust." Varoufakis on his arrival explained that he "hopes for white smoke" by the end of the day adding that "Greece has gone the extra 10 miles... and hopes EU can meet them one-fith of the way."

"The Eurozone chess game has entered its third and final stage. Germany wins in three moves - Euro, deflation and purchase of public debt by the ECB (QE) – and in the last few years it has found a way to maximise its profits and reduce to zero its risks as Europe’s creditor.... If we wait too long before leaving the Euro, then Germany will get checkmate and after cashing in all the benefits of our entry into the Euro, it will also cash in on the benefits of our exit."

All of the biggest problems in the financial world revolve around the bond markets today:

"We think that negative snowstorm effects could potentially subtract as much as half a percentage point from Q1 growth compared with a neutral baseline, although there is still plenty of time for activity to bounce back within the quarter. In light of our analysis, we reduced our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by two-tenths to +2.8%."

- Goldman Sachs

Following "optimistic" comments from Dijsselbloem (which were couched in total uncertainty) and reports that the Eurogroup Meeting had been delayed, Stocks and EURUSD started to soar as it appears confusion reigns... or who leaked something?

This won't end well...

UPDATE: JOC.com now hearing conflicting reports on deal

Following threats from the US labor secretary "that they have until Friday to reach a contract or they’ll have to negotiate in Washington D.C.," Dockworkers and their bosses, according to JOC.com, have reached an agreement (despite Reuters reports that no deal was reached last night).

With OPEX out of the way, the indices are free to trade on anxiety and reality... and have now given up all the post-"Greek Talks Fail" gains... WTI Crude and Treasury yields are plunging.

Having hovered at its lowest level in 12 months in January, February's Markit US Manufacturing PMI printed 54.3 (modestly above expectations of 53.6). Under the covers it is a very different story with New orders dropping to their lowest level since Jan 2014 and employment falling. While the headline will likely steal the day (though initial equity reactions are negative), as Markit concludes, "the rate of economic growth remains well down on last year."