Archive - Feb 9, 2015

One thing is clearing up: Europe does not want or need to start a war with Russia at America’s insistence. What America needs is a war with itself, a war against the lazy narcissism that has left it susceptible to armies of grifters and racketeers, because ordinary people were too busy twerking and jerking to pay any real attention to the systematic dismemberment of their culture. Waiting in the wings is a whole category of human endeavor quaintly known as virtue, lately absent in the collective consciousness.

• The terms of a compromise are easier to see than the willingness to compromise. At the time of writing, Greece is deadlocked in its bilateral discussions, as well as with the troika members.
• Breaking the deadlock voluntarily may not be easy. Political realities in the rest of Europe argue against granting the Syriza-led government concessions on debt or fiscal relief. Yet the Greek government feels it has a mandate to demand such relief.
• Hence, outside pressure—in the form of financial and market dislocations—seems necessary to focus minds.

This could be awkward... US President Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are face-to-face this morning to present a 'united' front on world affairs. 'United' that is apart from Germany slamming US plans to provide weapons to Ukraine as "risky and counter-productive" and Obama rejecting Germany's calls for more austerity in Greece... let's see if they can "agree to disagree."

Three consecutive days of oil prices rising and suddenly all is well again. This is the extremely short sightedness that the markets possess. The bottom callers have come out in droves, screaming that prices will only move higher from here, but will they?

There is a possibility that oil prices may of hit a near term low, and will likely stabilize in the $40 to $45 per barrel range. However, the reasons for the recent rise in oil prices that market pundits have been expressing are simply not true.

With Spanish and Italian leaders desperately running around to any and every media outlet to proclaim themselves economically fit and deny deny deny what Greek FinMin Varoufakis said yesterday, it appears the market has a different perspective. Portuguese bond spreads are 16bps wider and Spanish and Italian bond spreads are 12bps wider - their worst day in almost 4 months - as it appears Grexit fears are starting to creep into the rest of the periphery.

With France pivoting and Merkel turning her back on Obama's arms-for-Ukraine proposals, perhaps Vladimir Putin can be forgiven for an impromptu exhibition of "jazz hands" at yesterday's Minsk Summit preparations...

The same as your old new enemy...

For the first time ever, "developed" central banks are now monetizing more than 100% of global sovereign debt issuance!

The urgency to put your savings to work is understandable, but patience is a virtue. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to wait for the right opportunity to come along... The math is pretty simple.

Just 3 short months ago, Greek bank bonds were trading near par and every over-leveraged, over-confident, over-full-of-propaganda hedge fund was buying them "for the yield" - well, S&P had upgraded Greece and implied 'all-clear'. Today, Greek bank bonds are trading at 60% of face-value, having dead-cat-bounced last week before re-collapsing today. Greek bank stocks are also careening lower with most at record lows (below the lows reached during the peak of the crisis). The reason to focus on these instruments is that, while somewhat illiquid, they are the most sensitive to the day-to-day headlines and overall sentiment on Greece (and Grexit) as a pure reflection (redenomination risk aside) of trouble ahead.

The world economy stands on the brink of a second credit crisis as the vital transmission systems for lending between banks begin to seize up and the debt markets fall over. The latest round of quantitative easing from the European Central Bank will buy some time but it looks like too little too late.

Having fallen for 47 of the last 51 days, The Baltic Dry Index (tracking the cost of shipping dry bulk from iron ore to grains) has been collapsing in a well-documented manner by Zero Hedge (though not the mainstream media). With Cramer having told investors of its importance previously, it will be hard to ignore the fact that, as of this morning, the index of global shipping costs has never (ever) been lower at 554. We leave it to readers to decide what they think this means (but we already know what it means for shippers and ship-building companies).

"We want to avoid further deterioration in relations between Russia and Europe," explained Cyprus' President Nicos Anastasiades upon reportedly signing an agreement to offer Russia military facilities on its soil (that we noted previously). The air force base at which Russian planes will use is about 40 kilometers from Britain's sovereign Air Force base at Akrotiri, on the south shores of Cyprus, which provides support to NATO operations in the Middle and Near East regions. As fault lines within the EU widen, Anastasiades said in his interview that Cyprus opposes additional sanctions against Russia by the European Union over Ukraine, "Cyprus and Russia enjoy traditionally good relations and that is not going to change."

"There is no way out" for Greece from its treaty obligations warns German lawmaker Michael Fuchs (Angela Merkel's deputy caucus chairman) telling Bloomberg TV that conditions set for Greece by The Troika (EU, ECB, IMF) for bailout funds "have to be fulfilled.... That's it, very simple." The Greeks remain adamant that they will not ask for an extension to the bailout mechanism with both Tsipras and Varoufakis confirming that a bridge agreement is required and the latter adding "the ECB has lost control of monetary policy," demanding the Troika structure come to an end. Then German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble exclaimed at the G-20 meeting that "Greece either has to find a way to get bridge financing, or, if they want to do it with us, they need a program," seeming to push the door open to possible Russian financial aid for Greece as Europe's pivot to Putin appears to be rising.

"Greek Fin Min Varoufakis said the euro will collapse if Greece exits, calling Italian debt unsustainable. Markets may gain the impression that Greece may not opt for a compromise, instead opting for an all or nothing approach when negotiating on Wednesday. It seems the risk premium of Greece leaving EMU is rising. Our scenario analysis suggests a Greek exit taking EURUSD down to 0.90."-  Morgan Stanley