Archive - Feb 2015

We have put the sociopaths in charge, in an international and largely anonymous dictatorship. Who really pulls the levers in the IMF, or NATO etc? We have no way of knowing. And that’s the problem. And that is what Syriza, and precious few besides them, are set to fight. And why they deserve – and need – our support. Because if they don’t win, we don’t.

But, the jobs data was awesome? Greece is contained? "goldilocks"??

Google Trends and Bloomberg News Counts show that interest in "Grexit" is at its highest since mid-2012 - the peak of the previous European crisis before Draghi said "whatever it takes" and Juncker said everything is awesome. However, as the following chart shows, not everyone cares about Grexit (especially when there's Kim Kardashian on TV)...

When the shill hits the fan...

You know you're in trouble when your 'mis-remembering' becomes a meme...

By now, there have been so many banker-related suicides that it has become a moot point of i) tracking them all or ii) trying to find a pattern. And yet, one name continues to stand out: JPMorgan. The bank which has been most prominent among the list of "suicided" bankers notched one more casualty over the weekend when "a JPMorgan Chase & Co. employee strangled and stabbed his wife to death before turning the knife on himself, according to police who are treating the couple’s death in Bergen County, New Jersey as a murder-suicide." But most eerie and disturbing is how comparable the Tabacchi double-death is to a comparable case from July of last year when as we reported not only did a JPM executive director shoot his wife multiple times before using the same weapon on himself (like now), but the tragedy also took place in New Jersey.

The recent rally in crude prices looks more like a head-fake than a sustainable turning point, suggests Citi's Ed Morse, noting that short-term market factors are more bearish, pointing to more price pressure for the next couple of months and beyond. While the shape of the oil price recovery is unlikely to be 'L'-shaped in their view (more likely 'U', 'V', or 'W'-shaped recovery), Citi warns the oil market should bottom sometime between the end of Q1 and beginning of Q2 at a significantly lower price level in the $40 range (perhaps as low as the $20 range for a while) - after which markets should start to balance, first with an end to inventory builds and later on with a period of sustained inventory draws.

Today the financial system is even more leveraged than in 2007… backstopped by even less high quality collateral. And this time around, most industrialized sovereign nations themselves are bankrupt, meaning that when the bond bubble pops, the selling panic and liquidations will be even more extreme.

Despite the fact that the "shadow of crisis has passed" and Friday's jobs data 'proves' the recovery is on track, NYPD has some advice for those who have benefited from the 'wreckovery'...

Perhaps, as in 2008, commodities are a very large canary in a very crowded coalmine. I am highly confident Mr. Stockman's prediction about North Dakota is going to come all too true.

It never fails: every time redenomination risks and the specter of the (New) Drachma rear its ugly heads, Greeks, like dutiful Austrian economists, realize that Neoliberal economics is nothing but a steaming pile of drivel that only works when everyone is "confident" and gets deeper in debt with a smile on their face while failing in every other instance, and decide that the time has come to convert their paper wealth into hard assets. It happened in 2010, in 2012, and now that Greece is on the verge of its third Grexit in the past 5 years, it is happening again. "The one thing everyone knows about gold is it is a good thing to hold if your currency is about to devalue,” Matthew Turner, an analyst at Macquarie Bank Ltd., said via phone. “It would be understandable for Greeks to buy gold because they are afraid of losing their money.”

"Success is anything but certain," warned Germany's Merkel during the uncomfortably un-united joint press conference as both the leaders appeared to be able to agree on only one thing - that a military solution will not happen. This was followed by what appeared to be President Obama conceding to Merkel that the provision of arms to Ukraine was kinda sorta 'off-the-table' - though still under "ongoing analysis."  Hopes remain for a diplomatic solution and President Obama even concluded, "we are not looking for Russia to fail. ... Our preference is for a strong, vibrant, confident Russia." Other items that caused some tension included Iran, Israel, NSA "trust" and US asking for "benefit of the doubt," and Greek anti-austerity plans...

One thing is clearing up: Europe does not want or need to start a war with Russia at America’s insistence. What America needs is a war with itself, a war against the lazy narcissism that has left it susceptible to armies of grifters and racketeers, because ordinary people were too busy twerking and jerking to pay any real attention to the systematic dismemberment of their culture. Waiting in the wings is a whole category of human endeavor quaintly known as virtue, lately absent in the collective consciousness.

• The terms of a compromise are easier to see than the willingness to compromise. At the time of writing, Greece is deadlocked in its bilateral discussions, as well as with the troika members.
• Breaking the deadlock voluntarily may not be easy. Political realities in the rest of Europe argue against granting the Syriza-led government concessions on debt or fiscal relief. Yet the Greek government feels it has a mandate to demand such relief.
• Hence, outside pressure—in the form of financial and market dislocations—seems necessary to focus minds.

This could be awkward... US President Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are face-to-face this morning to present a 'united' front on world affairs. 'United' that is apart from Germany slamming US plans to provide weapons to Ukraine as "risky and counter-productive" and Obama rejecting Germany's calls for more austerity in Greece... let's see if they can "agree to disagree."