Archive - Feb 2015

Can the EURO catch the BID

While we already know that there is only one true irrationally non-economic buyer of stocks in the US equity market, getting confirmation from none other than Goldman Sachs is another matter...

GS: "BUYBACKS yday accounted for 17% of our total flow, at times 33%"

Sourced from a run, this explains the machine-like vertical buying panic of the completely indiscriminate "well stocks are down and we need to maintain our bonuses) corporate buyback machine.

As had been widely rumored in the past two weeks, and as the WSJ reported overnight, moments ago McGraw Hill, parent of disgraced rating agency S&P, entered into a $1.5 billion settlement to fully resolve the DOJ lawsuit regarding S&P ratings on RMBS and CDOs. As the WSJ reported overnight, In the "span of about 30 hours, the Justice Department lowered its asking price and backed off demands that S&P admit to violating laws when it issued rosy grades on risky mortgage deals, the people said." But the bottom line: 'S&P agreed to ... withdraw its assertion that the Justice Department lawsuit was political retaliation for the ratings firm’s 2011 downgrade."

Angela Merkel just upst the narrative in a major way. After 24 hours or so of "well Greece is fixed" chatter about compromises - that wer later rebuked by Greece's Varoufakis, no lesser uberlord of Europe than Angela Merkel just dropped the following tapebomb:

*MERKEL SAID TO EXPECT GREEK FUNDING TALKS TO DRAG ON FOR MONTHS

Which means the crucial Feb 28th date looks like a problem - unless the ECB folds (diplomatically based on assumptions that Greece will fold in the future). The DAX (and for that matter all risk assets) is rolling over on the news...

It took less than 2 months for Goldman's Top Trade Recommendation #6: i.e., going short the CHFSEK, to implode in truly spectacular fashion, in the process bankrupting any number of levered FX investors, who suffered an unlevered loss of 16.5% (add leverage, annualize, and you end up with the worst trade "Top" reco perhaps in history). Less than three weeks later, Goldman feels the urge to take the flow on the other side of its clients' trades, and sure enough, here is Goldman's brand spanking new Top Trade, this time #9, one which recommends going long the USD against an "equally weighted basket of ZAR and KRW for a target of 110."

• RBA cuts interest rates to record low of 2.25% (SMH)
• RBI keeps rates on hold (Reuters), India allows banks flexibility on big projects to reboot growth (Reuters)
• BP slashes capital spending by 20% (FT)
• Greek Retreat on Writedown May Move Fight to Spending (BBG)
• Rosneft accounting move helps BP beat profit forecast (Reuters)
• Amazon in Talks to Buy Some of RadioShack's Stores (BBG)
• Behind Obama's budget proposals, a gloomy view of the future (Reuters)
• How the Justice Department, S&P Came to Terms (WSJ)
• Staples, Office Depot in Advanced Talks to Merge (WSJ)

The rally that was sparked by yesterday's late-day FT report had all but fizzled overnight, replaced by more concerns about the state of the global economy when Austrialia's central bank surprised the world (just 9 of 29 analysts had expected this move) by becoming the 15th in a row to ease in 2015 (the list: Singapore, Europe, Switzerland, Denmark, Canada, India, Turkey, Egypt, Romania, Peru, Albania, Uzbekistan and Pakistan, Russia and now Australia), cutting the cash rate to an all-time low of 2.25%, and sparking more concerns about a global currency war or rather USD war against every other currency, when the USDJPY algos woke up again, and did everything they could to re-defend the critical 117.20 level in the USDJPY which has proven critical in supporting the market in recent weeks, once again using the Greek "softening tone" story as the basis for the ramp as Europe woke up, which in turn sent the DAX promptly to new all time highs, while the Athens stock market surged by 9% at last check.

a day after the FT report sent futures soaring and has been responsible for the jump in European stocks this morning, the Greek finance minister made it quite clear that, as has been happening on pretty much every day since his ascent to power, he has been misinterpreted and that as Bloomberg noted a little over na hour ago, "there has been no "U-turn" on the Greek debt position, adding that "Our promise is solid, debt will be rendered sustainable even if haircut replaced with euphemisms, swaps" Greece’s Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis comments in Twitter post.

UPDATE: *INDIA'S CENTRAL BANK KEEPS BENCHMARK POLICY RATE AT 7.75%, CUTS SLR TO 21.5% OF NDTL FROM 22%

UPDATE: Dow Futs -80 points, S&P Futs -9pts

Following the 15th surprise rate cut of 2015 (Singapore, Europe, Switzerland, Denmark, Canada, India, Turkey, Egypt, Romania, Peru, Albania, Uzbekistan and Pakistan, Russia and now Australia), the Aussie Dollar has cratered to its lowest since May 2009 against the US Dollar at 0.7650 (and bond yields crashed by the most since 1997 to record lows). Aussie stocks kneejerked higher (on an extremely dovish RBA statement) but are fading (as are Chinese stocks). Perhaps even more concerningly indicative of the central banks losing control, following this morning's weak Japanese auction (or more properly expressed - BoJ monetization farce), USDJPY (under 117), Japanese stocks (down 350 points from US session highs), and JGBs (yields up 6-8bps) are all being sold.

During the fiscal year that ended on September 30, 2014, U.S. Special Operations forces (SOF) deployed to 133 countries - roughly 70% of the nations on the planet - according to Lieutenant Colonel Robert Bockholt, a public affairs officer with U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM). And this year could be a record-breaker, just 66 days into fiscal 2015 - America’s most elite troops had already set foot in 105 nations, approximately 80% of 2014’s total. Despite its massive scale and scope, this secret global war across much of the planet is unknown to most Americans…”We want to be everywhere,” said Votel at Geolnt...

Everything is not awesome...

Update, and in line with the FT report, here's Bloomberg: GREECE SAID TO DROP WRITEDOWN REQUEST AFTER OPPOSITION FROM EU

Over a week after the new Greek government came to power, it has presented its first actual proposal of how it hopes to negotiate with Europe that does not involve the infamous "debt write off", which as both Germany and the ECB have made clear, is a non-starter as it impairs the ECB's balance sheet and leads to a loss of "faith" in the money printer, the legacy monetary system and so on. So instead of yet another debt restructuring, the FT reports that Yanis Varoufakis "would no longer call for a headline write-off of Greece’s €315bn foreign debt. Rather it would request a “menu of debt swaps” to ease the burden, including two types of new bonds." Actually he still does, only he is not calling it as such.

In a stunningly honest reflection on itself (and its peer group of professional prognosticating panderers), The Federal Reserve's San Francisco research group finds that - just as we have pointed out again and again - that since 2007, FOMC participants have been persistently too optimistic about future U.S. economic growth. Real GDP growth forecasts have typically started high, but then are revised down over time as the incoming data continue to disappoint. Possible explanations for this pattern include missed warning signals about the buildup of imbalances before the crisis, overestimation of the efficacy of monetary policy following a balance-sheet recession, and the natural tendency of forecasters to extrapolate from recent data. The persistent bias in the track records of professional forecasters apply not only to forecasts of growth, but also of inflation and unemployment.

Greece has been borrowing its way to disaster long enough. For its part, Greece stands at a fork in the road. Syriza can move aggressively to recover Greece’s democratic sovereignty or it can desperately cling to the faltering currency and financial machinery of the Euro zone. But it can’t do both. Now and again history reaches an inflection point. Statesman and mere politicians, as the case may be, find themselves confronted with fraught circumstances and stark choices. February 2015 is one such moment.

While the US government has yet to opine on the recently leaked information during Joe Biden's November trip to Ukraine that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the US is already providing lethal aid to Kiev, and certainly has said absolutely nothing about the presence of US soldiers - either taxpayer funded or mercenary - on Ukraine soil, the topic of legitimizing lethal weapons is once again on the front of the White House agenda. According to the WSJ, "The U.S. government is considering providing Javelin antitank missiles, small arms and ammunition to Ukraine, part of an effort to try to deter further aggression by Russia-backed rebels there, according to U.S. officials."