Archive - Mar 11, 2015

Earlier today, Greek Prime Minister Tsipras was busy not making German friends, following the latest Greek overture to confiscate German assets in response for allegedly unpaid German WWII reparations. “After the reunification of Germany in 1990, the legal and political conditions were created for this issue to be solved. But since then, German governments chose silence, legal tricks and delay. And I wonder, because there is a lot of talk at the European level these days about moral issues: is this stance moral?” Tsipras said and added that "despite the crimes of the Third Reich and Hitler’s hordes, the German debt was written off." As a result Greece is now seeking to recoup German WWII reparations which may amount to as much as 80% of Greek GDP!

It appears the new normal has reached peak 'consequence-free'-ness. As South African reporter Vuyo Mvoko prepared for his live TV report - standing in front of a camera, bright lights, and various cameramen and crew - two armed men decided it was an opportune time for a mugging... and the whole farcical and dangerous scene was caught on tape...

Whether this is just a function of recent/upcoming 3/10/30 bond auctions, or if Europe's central banks are quietly loading up on paper thus forcing another collateral squeeze is currently unknown.

"The ECB could move to cutting the depo rate further to maintain loose financial conditions and especially to prevent a taper tantram forcing EURUSD higher," Citi says, commenting on steps the central bank may be forced to take in the event some core countries (i.e. Germany) are unable to source enough eligible assets to meet purchase targets under PSPP. Just two days in, speculation is growing about the viability of the program. 

• Fed Likely to Remove ‘Patient’ Barrier for Rate Increase as Soon as June (Hilsenrath) - which year?
• Clinton says used personal email account for convenience (Reuters)
• Euro sinks to 12-year lows as yield gap grows (Reuters)
• Get Ready for Oil Deals: Shale Is Going on Sale (BBG)
• EIA raises 2015 US oil production forecast, cuts 2016 outlook (Reuters)
• How Falling Oil Prices Are Hindering Iraq’s Ability to Fight Islamic State (WSJ)
• China economic data weaker than expected, fuels policy easing bets (Reuters)
• ECB ‘Chasing Own Tail’ as Bond Rates Turn Negative, SocGen Says (BBG)
• Swiss makers quietly gear up with smartwatches of their own (Reuters)

Activity data for the combined January-February period (the NBS releases these two months together given the difficulty of adjusting for Chinese New Year effects) was significantly weaker than expected across IP, FAI, and retail sales. For overall industrial production, this was the weakest year-over-year reading ever (China’s IP data starts from 1995) outside the global financial crisis.

While the dollar strength this morning, which has pushed it to a fresh 13 year high and has accelerated the EURUSD plunge to under 1.06 - a drop of over 300 pips since the start of the week - has been a recap of yesterday's trading action, the main difference is that unlike yesterday, the USDJPY has managed to find a strong bid in the overnight session, pushing not only the Nikkei up by 0.4%, but also lifting US equity futures as the entire global marketplace is now merely a sandbox in which the central banks try to crush their currencies as fast as possible.

One of the “mysteries” of our modern (i.e. fraudulent) precious metals markets is explaining the face-value of our gold and silver minted coins, meaning relating their nominal price to their actual value. The face-value on U.S./Canadian silver 1-oz coins is $1 and $5, and the face-value for our 1-oz gold coins is $50. For those investors (including this analyst) who began using precious metals as a vehicle for wealth-protection at a relatively late date; the face-value of these coins seems totally arbitrary.