Archive - Mar 19, 2015

As we cross into the European close, commodity markets are surging higher led by Copper and Silver. This is happening as the US Dollar strengthens and stocks leak to the lows of the day...

The new Greek government, instead of seriously contemplating a Plan B outside of the Eurozone, was busy thinking of new ways to raid its own population just to repay the "loathed" Troika. In the latest sad indication of just how truly insolvent Greece is, Reuters also reported that days after raiding its own Pension funds to repay the IMF (which in turn lent the cash to Ukraine so it could repay Ukraine's obligations to Gazprom and thus Putin), the Syriza government is now raiding the major state utility firms to lend the government cash through short-term repo transactions as it scrambles to avoid running out of cash.

In 1987, Aviva France started offering The Fixed Price Arbitrage Life Insurance Contract for wealthy clients. The Financial Times called it "the worst contract in the world". It allows the contract holder to invest with hindsight. Did you see a stock go up this week? Now you can buy it at last week's price. Did your stock plummet? Sell it at last week's price. It is the ultimate form of insider trading: time travel.

Who could have seen that coming? Energy stocks are collapsing as crude gives up all its gains and the hopes and dreams of all the NIM-earning banks are dashed on the shores of disastrous data and patient-er Fed...

On the day that Apple joins the Dow (and juices its volatility), it is a good job analysts have something else to focus on (the TV un-bundling plan) because Apple Watch just found a new 'old' competitor to deal with. As Bloomberg reports, Swiss watchmaker TAG Heuer is creating a smartwatch in partnership with American technology firm Google. While TAG is the first traditional watchmaker to pair with Google, the partnership could open the door to other collaborations with high-end brands owned by LVMH, including Hublot and Zenith. Would you rather - $10,000 iWatch, $10,000 TAG?

Philly Fed hasn't missed for 4 months in a row since Feb 2012. Printing at 5 (against expectations of 7) the March Philly Fed data is the weakest since Feb 2014. Under the covers it was even uglier... Employees, Average Workweek, New Orders, Prices Received, and Shipments all plunged. Great news for the stock market bulls... yet another dismally bad data item to keep The Fed from hiking.

Having a rigged, distorted system that fakes being a market and makes a bunch of grifters a lot of money, is not how you build a functioning society.

One might conclude, when looking at the excessive attention ‘everyone’ paid yet again today to Janet Yellen and the Fed, waiting breathlessly to see if she utters the word ‘patience’, that those people who call themselves ‘investors’ are not even grifters, they’re nothing but yet another group of lazy bums waiting for government – and/or central bank – hand-outs.

Well that didn't take long...

Many analysts regard this as further evidence that the Fed is caught in a bind. What is yet to be appreciated by most analysts is that it is unlikely that the massively over-leveraged and debt-saturated financial system can weather increases in interest rates.

Reversing all of yesterday's FOMC-inspired idiocy, WTI has plunged back to reality this morning. Following comments by Kuwait's comments that OPEC had no choice but to keep production steady, refocusing the market on global oversupply, April WTI is back down to a $42 handle.

After some 'stability' in the last few weeks, initial jobless claims in the major shale states has started to rise again with Texas the most impacted for now. Overall initial jobless claims rose very modestly to 291k, but leaves the 4-week average above 300k for the 2nd week in a row - the first time in over 6 months. Contonuing claims rose modestly also, confirming the change in trend from improving to stable-to-deteriorating again.

Yellen would never admit it, but the FOMC is (and has been) on a pre-set course to hike rates in June.  However, a pre-set course is not a guarantee.   Any deviation from this path has required a significant change in financial, economic, or geo-political conditions, particularly as ‘mid-2015’ has approached.    Markets will, therefore, have to contend with one of two evils: worsening conditions, or an interest rate hike in June.  In a worst case scenario, markets could be hit by both at the same time.

• Fed May Not Hit Neutral Until 10th Anniversary of Lehman Collapse (BBG)... make that never
• Global stocks and bonds roar Fed approval, dollar fights back (Reuters)
• EU to tell Greece time, patience running out (Reuters)
• U.S. likely to delay planned closure of two Afghanistan bases (Reuters)
• Norway Signals Reduction After Unexpectedly Holding Rate (BBG)
• Oil Falls to $55 as Kuwait Comments Refocus on Oversupply (Reuters)
• Tsipras Heads to Summit as Merkel Tries to Defuse Greek Crisis (BBG)
• Yahoo Pulls the Plug on China Operations (WSJ)

If it was the Fed's intention to slow down the relentless surge in the dollar with yesterday's "impatient" removal which blamed the dollar strength on the "strength" in the US economy, it promptly failed after algos and a few carbon-based traders looked at the Atlanta Fed and realized that a 0.3% Q1 GDP print is anything but "strong." As a result the EURUSD, after soaring by nearly 400 pips yesterday in a market reminiscent of a third-world FX pair's liquidity especially following the previously noted USD flash crash, the dollar has recoupped nearly all losses, and the DXY is once again on the way up and eyeing the resistance area of 100.

Monetary policy is putting the hurt on labor.