Archive - Mar 8, 2015

Austria’s decision to wind down Heta Asset Resolution AG sent ripples through the financial system, causing credit rating downgrades in Austria and bank losses in Germany: "It’s a mini-Greece going off in the heartlands of Europe." Here are some of the consequences, and delightful ironies, of a completely unexpected black swan landing in the south of Austria.

Something curious has emerged as a result of the divergent "Fed-vs-Everyone-Else" central bank policy: as JPM observed over the weekend while looking at the dollar fx basis, the dollar funding shortage is back with a vengeance, and is accelerating at pace not seen since the Lehman collapse.

Why are negative interest rates now making an appearance? They are a natural consequence of the rampant money creation undertaken by central banks in response to the global financial crisis as there is a lot more newly-created money floating around the financial system than there are safe places to put it. With the increasingly globalized world of international finance a bank run or financial panic anywhere can easily become a bank run or financial panic everywhere, it might be a good time to give your mattress a bit of extra padding.

People think history is not repeating itself because a loaf of bread does not cost 10 million Deutsche Marks...

Blackstone, who already may be your landlord, is reportedly close to buying the nation's second largest skyscraper in a $1.5 billion deal. 

Because we are all deep-undercover Greek tax collectors now.

No lessor official than European Commission President (and liar-when-it's-serious) Jean-Claude Juncker has called for the creation of an EU army... in order to show Russia "that [The EU is] serious about defending European values." Juncker explained an EU army would "help us fulfil Europe's responsibilities in the world," arguing that NATO was not enough since not all EU members are part of the alliance. As one stunned euro-skeptic exclaimed, "we have all seen the utter mess the EU has made of the economy, so how can we even think of trusting them with its defence."

"Commodity pricing is vastly more important than most people actually realize," explains former CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton, warning that "beginning around 2007 the rise of computer driven trading algorithms changed the rules, and the markets have not been the same since." Chilton is sympathetic to the perception many frustrated and bruised investors have about the manipulation of the precious metals markets - on record saying that the large short position concentrations have been outrageous. Why not the CFTC directly? Sadly, the former CFTC boss notes, "regulators by and large aren't listening to average people."

Another best seller?

Greenspan started the destructive Keynesian tradition of pumping liquidity to stimulate the economy, and this tradition has created significant economic pain for Main Street in the form of long-term unemployment and underemployment, reduced wages, foreclosures, bankruptcies, reduced savings rates, shuttered businesses, and drained savings and retirement accounts. So, “Mr. Bubble” inferring that the Fed creates unsustainable bubbles for the benefit of Main Street is pretty insulting.

Back in 2009, the United Nations Statistical Commission endorsed a revision to the System of National Accounts (SNA), which sets the international standards for the compilation of national accounts. As a consequence, Eurostat has amended the European equivalent of the SNA, the European System of Accounts (ESA) leading to a revision of GDP figures. Out of nothing but accounting smoke and mirrors, the reclassification has had a positive effect on GDP, increasing it on average by 3.5 percentage points for the EU and the Euro area as whole.

The longest running European "Union" soap-opera may finally be coming to its anticlimatic end.

Mission Accomplished?

The availability and cost of floating storage, and the magnitude of the crude oil contango will be critical in helping form the price path of oil," Soc Gen says. If that's the case, we could see crude go far lower over the coming months.

Goldman confirms precisely what we’ve been saying all along which is that the risks inherent in subprime lending are materializing and at the margin, growth in US auto sales has all been created by lowering credit standards and extending terms to a whole load of 'new' auto buyers.